Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method
Climate change is causing permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to degrade, triggering thermokarst hazards and impacting the environment. Despite their ecological importance, the distribution and risks of thermokarst lakes are not well understood due to complex influencing factors. In this study,...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1930403c28684cd9b1ed175651141212 2024-09-15T18:29:55+00:00 Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method Yuting Yang Jizhou Wang Xi Mao Wenjuan Lu Rui Wang Hao Zheng 2024-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070788 https://doaj.org/article/1930403c28684cd9b1ed175651141212 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/7/788 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15070788 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/1930403c28684cd9b1ed175651141212 Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 7, p 788 (2024) thermokarst hazard susceptibility evaluation interpretability potential risk analysis ensemble learning Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070788 2024-08-05T17:48:50Z Climate change is causing permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to degrade, triggering thermokarst hazards and impacting the environment. Despite their ecological importance, the distribution and risks of thermokarst lakes are not well understood due to complex influencing factors. In this study, we introduced a new interpretable ensemble learning method designed to improve the global and local interpretation of susceptibility assessments for thermokarst lakes. Our primary aim was to offer scientific support for precisely evaluating areas prone to thermokarst lake formation. In the thermokarst lake susceptibility assessment, we identified ten conditioning factors related to the formation and distribution of thermokarst lakes. In this highly accurate stacking model, the primary learning units were the random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (EXTs), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithms. Meanwhile, gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs) were employed as the secondary learning unit. Based on the stacking model, we assessed thermokarst lake susceptibility and validated accuracy through six evaluation indices. We examined the interpretability of the stacking model using three interpretation methods: accumulated local effects (ALE), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The results showed that the ensemble learning stacking model demonstrated superior performance and the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 91.20% of the total thermokarst hazard points fell within the high and very high susceptible areas, encompassing 20.08% of the permafrost expanse in the QTP. The conclusive findings revealed that slope, elevation, the topographic wetness index (TWI), and precipitation were the primary factors influencing the assessment of thermokarst lake susceptibility. This comprehensive analysis extends to the broader impacts of thermokarst hazards, with the identified high and very high susceptibility zones ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Thermokarst Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 15 7 788 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
thermokarst hazard susceptibility evaluation interpretability potential risk analysis ensemble learning Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
thermokarst hazard susceptibility evaluation interpretability potential risk analysis ensemble learning Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Yuting Yang Jizhou Wang Xi Mao Wenjuan Lu Rui Wang Hao Zheng Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
topic_facet |
thermokarst hazard susceptibility evaluation interpretability potential risk analysis ensemble learning Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Climate change is causing permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to degrade, triggering thermokarst hazards and impacting the environment. Despite their ecological importance, the distribution and risks of thermokarst lakes are not well understood due to complex influencing factors. In this study, we introduced a new interpretable ensemble learning method designed to improve the global and local interpretation of susceptibility assessments for thermokarst lakes. Our primary aim was to offer scientific support for precisely evaluating areas prone to thermokarst lake formation. In the thermokarst lake susceptibility assessment, we identified ten conditioning factors related to the formation and distribution of thermokarst lakes. In this highly accurate stacking model, the primary learning units were the random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (EXTs), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithms. Meanwhile, gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs) were employed as the secondary learning unit. Based on the stacking model, we assessed thermokarst lake susceptibility and validated accuracy through six evaluation indices. We examined the interpretability of the stacking model using three interpretation methods: accumulated local effects (ALE), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The results showed that the ensemble learning stacking model demonstrated superior performance and the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 91.20% of the total thermokarst hazard points fell within the high and very high susceptible areas, encompassing 20.08% of the permafrost expanse in the QTP. The conclusive findings revealed that slope, elevation, the topographic wetness index (TWI), and precipitation were the primary factors influencing the assessment of thermokarst lake susceptibility. This comprehensive analysis extends to the broader impacts of thermokarst hazards, with the identified high and very high susceptibility zones ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yuting Yang Jizhou Wang Xi Mao Wenjuan Lu Rui Wang Hao Zheng |
author_facet |
Yuting Yang Jizhou Wang Xi Mao Wenjuan Lu Rui Wang Hao Zheng |
author_sort |
Yuting Yang |
title |
Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
title_short |
Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
title_full |
Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
title_fullStr |
Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
title_full_unstemmed |
Susceptibility Modeling and Potential Risk Analysis of Thermokarst Hazard in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Permafrost Landscapes Using a New Interpretable Ensemble Learning Method |
title_sort |
susceptibility modeling and potential risk analysis of thermokarst hazard in qinghai–tibet plateau permafrost landscapes using a new interpretable ensemble learning method |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070788 https://doaj.org/article/1930403c28684cd9b1ed175651141212 |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 7, p 788 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/7/788 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15070788 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/1930403c28684cd9b1ed175651141212 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070788 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
788 |
_version_ |
1810471396700061696 |