Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number
For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number Author summary Rising temperatures through climate change are expected to increase arboviral disease pressure, so understanding the impact of climate change on newly emerging diseases such as Zika is essential to prepare for future outbreaks. H...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doaj.org/article/18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 2023-06-11T04:09:41+02:00 Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number Hannah Van Wyk Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Andrew F. Brouwer 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10138270/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 https://doaj.org/article/18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 4 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles 2023-05-07T00:35:40Z For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number Author summary Rising temperatures through climate change are expected to increase arboviral disease pressure, so understanding the impact of climate change on newly emerging diseases such as Zika is essential to prepare for future outbreaks. However, because disease transmission may be less effective at very high temperatures, it is uncertain whether risk will uniformly increase in different regions. Given the nonlinear relationship between temperature and many important biological vector traits, mathematical modeling is a useful tool for predicting the impact of temperature on arbovirus risk. We used a temperature-dependent infectious disease transmission model to derive a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number. We then used historical temperature data and temperature projections for the years 2045–2049 to forecast Zika risk in four cities in Brazil under various climate change scenarios. We predict an overall increase in arbovirus risk, as well as extended risk seasons in cities that are not currently suitable for year-round spread, such as Rio de Janeiro. We also found little-to-no protective effect of increasing temperatures even in warmer climates like Manaus. Our results indicate that preparation for future Zika outbreaks (and of those of other arboviruses including dengue) should include the implementation of national disease surveillance and early detection systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Hannah Van Wyk Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Andrew F. Brouwer Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number Author summary Rising temperatures through climate change are expected to increase arboviral disease pressure, so understanding the impact of climate change on newly emerging diseases such as Zika is essential to prepare for future outbreaks. However, because disease transmission may be less effective at very high temperatures, it is uncertain whether risk will uniformly increase in different regions. Given the nonlinear relationship between temperature and many important biological vector traits, mathematical modeling is a useful tool for predicting the impact of temperature on arbovirus risk. We used a temperature-dependent infectious disease transmission model to derive a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number. We then used historical temperature data and temperature projections for the years 2045–2049 to forecast Zika risk in four cities in Brazil under various climate change scenarios. We predict an overall increase in arbovirus risk, as well as extended risk seasons in cities that are not currently suitable for year-round spread, such as Rio de Janeiro. We also found little-to-no protective effect of increasing temperatures even in warmer climates like Manaus. Our results indicate that preparation for future Zika outbreaks (and of those of other arboviruses including dengue) should include the implementation of national disease surveillance and early detection systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hannah Van Wyk Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Andrew F. Brouwer |
author_facet |
Hannah Van Wyk Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Andrew F. Brouwer |
author_sort |
Hannah Van Wyk |
title |
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
title_short |
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
title_full |
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
title_fullStr |
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
title_sort |
long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on zika and dengue risk in four brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 4 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10138270/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 https://doaj.org/article/18f4e1b5500d49769aab6de68ce386d4 |
_version_ |
1768383655113129984 |