Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. T...

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Published in:PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Main Authors: Magali Teurlai, Christophe Eugène Menkès, Virgil Cavarero, Nicolas Degallier, Elodie Descloux, Jean-Paul Grangeon, Laurent Guillaumot, Thérèse Libourel, Paulo Sergio Lucio, Françoise Mathieu-Daudé, Morgan Mangeas
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2015
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211
https://doaj.org/article/18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492 2023-05-15T15:16:45+02:00 Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia. Magali Teurlai Christophe Eugène Menkès Virgil Cavarero Nicolas Degallier Elodie Descloux Jean-Paul Grangeon Laurent Guillaumot Thérèse Libourel Paulo Sergio Lucio Françoise Mathieu-Daudé Morgan Mangeas 2015-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211 https://doaj.org/article/18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4666598?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211 https://doaj.org/article/18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 12, p e0004211 (2015) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211 2022-12-31T12:29:39Z BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. METHODS:We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. RESULTS:The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. CONCLUSION:In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9 12 e0004211
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
spellingShingle Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Magali Teurlai
Christophe Eugène Menkès
Virgil Cavarero
Nicolas Degallier
Elodie Descloux
Jean-Paul Grangeon
Laurent Guillaumot
Thérèse Libourel
Paulo Sergio Lucio
Françoise Mathieu-Daudé
Morgan Mangeas
Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
topic_facet Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
description BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. METHODS:We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. RESULTS:The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. CONCLUSION:In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Magali Teurlai
Christophe Eugène Menkès
Virgil Cavarero
Nicolas Degallier
Elodie Descloux
Jean-Paul Grangeon
Laurent Guillaumot
Thérèse Libourel
Paulo Sergio Lucio
Françoise Mathieu-Daudé
Morgan Mangeas
author_facet Magali Teurlai
Christophe Eugène Menkès
Virgil Cavarero
Nicolas Degallier
Elodie Descloux
Jean-Paul Grangeon
Laurent Guillaumot
Thérèse Libourel
Paulo Sergio Lucio
Françoise Mathieu-Daudé
Morgan Mangeas
author_sort Magali Teurlai
title Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
title_short Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
title_full Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
title_fullStr Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
title_full_unstemmed Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia.
title_sort socio-economic and climate factors associated with dengue fever spatial heterogeneity: a worked example in new caledonia.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2015
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211
https://doaj.org/article/18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
genre_facet Arctic
op_source PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 12, p e0004211 (2015)
op_relation http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4666598?pdf=render
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https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211
https://doaj.org/article/18a55523dcf44b4fa0d7a30d25e21492
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container_title PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
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