Cascading transitions in the climate system
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems...
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2018
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:17fbcc98050e457da5ec7388b28ae36b 2023-05-15T17:31:48+02:00 Cascading transitions in the climate system M. M. Dekker A. S. von der Heydt H. A. Dijkstra 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://doaj.org/article/17fbcc98050e457da5ec7388b28ae36b EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/17fbcc98050e457da5ec7388b28ae36b Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 1243-1260 (2018) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 2022-12-30T23:36:07Z We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 9 4 1243 1260 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 M. M. Dekker A. S. von der Heydt H. A. Dijkstra Cascading transitions in the climate system |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. M. Dekker A. S. von der Heydt H. A. Dijkstra |
author_facet |
M. M. Dekker A. S. von der Heydt H. A. Dijkstra |
author_sort |
M. M. Dekker |
title |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_short |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_fullStr |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_sort |
cascading transitions in the climate system |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://doaj.org/article/17fbcc98050e457da5ec7388b28ae36b |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 1243-1260 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/17fbcc98050e457da5ec7388b28ae36b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1243 |
op_container_end_page |
1260 |
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1766129563401715712 |