Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning
As the global environmental crisis grows in scale and complexity, conservation professionals and policymakers are increasingly called upon to make decisions despite high levels of uncertainty, limited resources, and insufficient data. Global efforts to protect biodiversity in areas beyond national j...
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2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 https://doaj.org/article/17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 2023-05-15T13:59:31+02:00 Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning Seth T. Sykora-Bodie Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero Javier A. Arata Alistair Dunn Jefferson T. Hinke Grant Humphries Christopher Jones Pål Skogrand Katharina Teschke Philip N. Trathan Dirk Welsford Natalie C. Ban Grant Murray David A. Gill 2021-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 https://doaj.org/article/17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 https://doaj.org/article/17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) Antarctica CCAMLR conservation planning expert elicitation forecasting marine conservation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 2022-12-31T13:22:48Z As the global environmental crisis grows in scale and complexity, conservation professionals and policymakers are increasingly called upon to make decisions despite high levels of uncertainty, limited resources, and insufficient data. Global efforts to protect biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction require substantial international cooperation and negotiation, both of which are characterized by unpredictability and high levels of uncertainty. Here we build on recent studies to adapt forecasting techniques from the fields of hazard prediction, risk assessment, and intelligence analysis to forecast the likelihood of marine protected area (MPA) designation in the Southern Ocean. We used two questionnaires, feedback, and a discussion round in a Delphi-style format expert elicitation to obtain forecasts, and collected data on specific biophysical, socioeconomic, geopolitical, and scientific factors to assess how they shape and influence these forecasts. We found that areas further north along the Western Antarctic Peninsula were considered to be less likely to be designated than areas further south, and that geopolitical factors, such as global politics or events, and socioeconomic factors, such as the presence of fisheries, were the key determinants of whether an area was predicted to be more or less likely to be designated as an MPA. Forecasting techniques can be used to inform protected area design, negotiation, and implementation in highly politicized situations where data is lacking by aiding with spatial prioritization, targeting scarce resources, and predicting the success of various spatial arrangements, interventions, or courses of action. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean Frontiers in Marine Science 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica CCAMLR conservation planning expert elicitation forecasting marine conservation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctica CCAMLR conservation planning expert elicitation forecasting marine conservation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Seth T. Sykora-Bodie Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero Javier A. Arata Alistair Dunn Jefferson T. Hinke Grant Humphries Christopher Jones Pål Skogrand Katharina Teschke Philip N. Trathan Dirk Welsford Natalie C. Ban Grant Murray David A. Gill Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
topic_facet |
Antarctica CCAMLR conservation planning expert elicitation forecasting marine conservation Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
As the global environmental crisis grows in scale and complexity, conservation professionals and policymakers are increasingly called upon to make decisions despite high levels of uncertainty, limited resources, and insufficient data. Global efforts to protect biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction require substantial international cooperation and negotiation, both of which are characterized by unpredictability and high levels of uncertainty. Here we build on recent studies to adapt forecasting techniques from the fields of hazard prediction, risk assessment, and intelligence analysis to forecast the likelihood of marine protected area (MPA) designation in the Southern Ocean. We used two questionnaires, feedback, and a discussion round in a Delphi-style format expert elicitation to obtain forecasts, and collected data on specific biophysical, socioeconomic, geopolitical, and scientific factors to assess how they shape and influence these forecasts. We found that areas further north along the Western Antarctic Peninsula were considered to be less likely to be designated than areas further south, and that geopolitical factors, such as global politics or events, and socioeconomic factors, such as the presence of fisheries, were the key determinants of whether an area was predicted to be more or less likely to be designated as an MPA. Forecasting techniques can be used to inform protected area design, negotiation, and implementation in highly politicized situations where data is lacking by aiding with spatial prioritization, targeting scarce resources, and predicting the success of various spatial arrangements, interventions, or courses of action. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seth T. Sykora-Bodie Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero Javier A. Arata Alistair Dunn Jefferson T. Hinke Grant Humphries Christopher Jones Pål Skogrand Katharina Teschke Philip N. Trathan Dirk Welsford Natalie C. Ban Grant Murray David A. Gill |
author_facet |
Seth T. Sykora-Bodie Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero Javier A. Arata Alistair Dunn Jefferson T. Hinke Grant Humphries Christopher Jones Pål Skogrand Katharina Teschke Philip N. Trathan Dirk Welsford Natalie C. Ban Grant Murray David A. Gill |
author_sort |
Seth T. Sykora-Bodie |
title |
Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
title_short |
Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
title_full |
Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
title_fullStr |
Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Forecasting Methods to Incorporate Social, Economic, and Political Considerations Into Marine Protected Area Planning |
title_sort |
using forecasting methods to incorporate social, economic, and political considerations into marine protected area planning |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 https://doaj.org/article/17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 https://doaj.org/article/17e955cf134b4352be6bdc0e257073c2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.669135 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
8 |
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1766268093356572672 |