Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:170852d4a7924953a4ec8b243562261c 2023-05-15T15:56:11+02:00 Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. Miranda C Jones Stephen R Dye Jose A Fernandes Thomas L Frölicher John K Pinnegar Rachel Warren William W L Cheung 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 https://doaj.org/article/170852d4a7924953a4ec8b243562261c EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3551960?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 https://doaj.org/article/170852d4a7924953a4ec8b243562261c PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 1, p e54216 (2013) Medicine R Science Q article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 2022-12-31T11:16:46Z Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). Article in Journal/Newspaper Common skate Dipturus batis Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PLoS ONE 8 1 e54216 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Miranda C Jones Stephen R Dye Jose A Fernandes Thomas L Frölicher John K Pinnegar Rachel Warren William W L Cheung Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Miranda C Jones Stephen R Dye Jose A Fernandes Thomas L Frölicher John K Pinnegar Rachel Warren William W L Cheung |
author_facet |
Miranda C Jones Stephen R Dye Jose A Fernandes Thomas L Frölicher John K Pinnegar Rachel Warren William W L Cheung |
author_sort |
Miranda C Jones |
title |
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
title_short |
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
title_full |
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. |
title_sort |
predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in uk waters. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 https://doaj.org/article/170852d4a7924953a4ec8b243562261c |
genre |
Common skate Dipturus batis |
genre_facet |
Common skate Dipturus batis |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 1, p e54216 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3551960?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 https://doaj.org/article/170852d4a7924953a4ec8b243562261c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054216 |
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PLoS ONE |
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8 |
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e54216 |
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