Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.
The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat map...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:16c4e0edfbe04f4db9f23d946875c048 2023-05-15T17:13:03+02:00 Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. Kate S G Gormley Joanne S Porter Michael C Bell Angela D Hull William G Sanderson 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 https://doaj.org/article/16c4e0edfbe04f4db9f23d946875c048 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3718827?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 https://doaj.org/article/16c4e0edfbe04f4db9f23d946875c048 PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 7, p e68263 (2013) Medicine R Science Q article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 2022-12-31T09:30:06Z The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool". Article in Journal/Newspaper Modiolus modiolus Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PLoS ONE 8 7 e68263 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Kate S G Gormley Joanne S Porter Michael C Bell Angela D Hull William G Sanderson Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool". |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kate S G Gormley Joanne S Porter Michael C Bell Angela D Hull William G Sanderson |
author_facet |
Kate S G Gormley Joanne S Porter Michael C Bell Angela D Hull William G Sanderson |
author_sort |
Kate S G Gormley |
title |
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
title_short |
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
title_full |
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
title_fullStr |
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
title_sort |
predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an ospar priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 https://doaj.org/article/16c4e0edfbe04f4db9f23d946875c048 |
genre |
Modiolus modiolus |
genre_facet |
Modiolus modiolus |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 7, p e68263 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3718827?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 https://doaj.org/article/16c4e0edfbe04f4db9f23d946875c048 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068263 |
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PLoS ONE |
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8 |
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container_start_page |
e68263 |
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