Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output...
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2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1691e52aa73542ac90ea2148b1d9dfca 2023-05-15T18:32:26+02:00 Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble L. Mudryk M. Santolaria-Otín G. Krinner M. Ménégoz C. Derksen C. Brutel-Vuilmet M. Brady R. Essery 2020-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 https://doaj.org/article/1691e52aa73542ac90ea2148b1d9dfca EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2495/2020/tc-14-2495-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/1691e52aa73542ac90ea2148b1d9dfca The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 2495-2514 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 2022-12-31T03:35:49Z This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">50</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="50pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="af99acbd4c8549a55f3f0b76f1616f6b"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-14-2495-2020-ie00001.svg" width="50pt" height="14pt" src="tc-14-2495-2020-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> km 2 yr −1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr −1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all ... Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 14 7 2495 2514 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 L. Mudryk M. Santolaria-Otín G. Krinner M. Ménégoz C. Derksen C. Brutel-Vuilmet M. Brady R. Essery Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">50</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mn mathvariant="normal">10</mn><mn mathvariant="normal">3</mn></msup></mrow></math> <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="50pt" height="14pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="af99acbd4c8549a55f3f0b76f1616f6b"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="tc-14-2495-2020-ie00001.svg" width="50pt" height="14pt" src="tc-14-2495-2020-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> km 2 yr −1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr −1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L. Mudryk M. Santolaria-Otín G. Krinner M. Ménégoz C. Derksen C. Brutel-Vuilmet M. Brady R. Essery |
author_facet |
L. Mudryk M. Santolaria-Otín G. Krinner M. Ménégoz C. Derksen C. Brutel-Vuilmet M. Brady R. Essery |
author_sort |
L. Mudryk |
title |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
historical northern hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the cmip6 multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 https://doaj.org/article/1691e52aa73542ac90ea2148b1d9dfca |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 2495-2514 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2495/2020/tc-14-2495-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/1691e52aa73542ac90ea2148b1d9dfca |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2495 |
op_container_end_page |
2514 |
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1766216540815884288 |