Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate
Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and th...
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Cambridge University Press
2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:166d45e509f6497cb69da9a958984a68 2023-05-15T13:33:59+02:00 Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate Christopher Chambers Ralf Greve Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Ayako Abe-Ouchi 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.124 https://doaj.org/article/166d45e509f6497cb69da9a958984a68 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021001246/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/166d45e509f6497cb69da9a958984a68 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 68, Pp 605-617 (2022) Antarctic glaciology ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.124 2023-03-12T01:30:54Z Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology 68 269 605 617 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic glaciology ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic glaciology ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Christopher Chambers Ralf Greve Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Ayako Abe-Ouchi Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
topic_facet |
Antarctic glaciology ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christopher Chambers Ralf Greve Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
author_facet |
Christopher Chambers Ralf Greve Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
author_sort |
Christopher Chambers |
title |
Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
title_short |
Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
title_full |
Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
title_fullStr |
Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
title_sort |
mass loss of the antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.124 https://doaj.org/article/166d45e509f6497cb69da9a958984a68 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 68, Pp 605-617 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021001246/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/166d45e509f6497cb69da9a958984a68 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.124 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
269 |
container_start_page |
605 |
op_container_end_page |
617 |
_version_ |
1766047666005868544 |