Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE
This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 r...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://doaj.org/article/163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 2024-09-15T18:02:10+00:00 Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE E. Jakobson L. Jakobson 2024-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://doaj.org/article/163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 155-165 (2024) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 2024-08-05T17:50:00Z This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 radiative forcing. The stationary control simulation's 1800-year long time series were used for stationary teleconnection and a 40-member ensemble from the period 1920–2100 is used for teleconnections during ongoing climate change. We analyzed seasonal temperature at a 2 m level, sea-level pressure, sea ice concentration, precipitation, geopotential height, and 10 m level wind speed. The Arctic was divided into seven areas. The Baltic Sea region climate has strong teleconnections with the Arctic climate; the strongest connections are with Svalbard and Greenland region. There is high seasonality in the teleconnections, with the strongest correlations in winter and the lowest correlations in summer, when the local meteorological factors are stronger. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate indices can explain most teleconnections in winter and spring. During ongoing climate change, the teleconnection patterns did not show remarkable changes by the end of the 21st century. Minor pattern changes are between the Baltic Sea region temperature and the sea ice concentration. We calculated the correlation between the parameter and its ridge regression estimation to estimate different Arctic regions' collective statistical connections with the Baltic Sea region. The seasonal coefficient of determination, R 2 , was highest for winter: for T 2 m , R 2 =0.64 for sea level pressure (SLP), R 2 =0.44 and for precipitation (PREC), R 2 =0.35 . When doing the same for the seasons' previous month values in the Arctic, the relations are considerably weaker, with the highest R 2 =0.09 being for temperature in the spring. Hence, Arctic climate data forecasting capacity for the Baltic Sea region is weak. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 15 1 155 165 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 E. Jakobson L. Jakobson Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
This paper examines teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region and is based on two cases of Community Earth System Model version 1 large ensemble (CESM-LE) climate model simulations: the stationary case with pre-industrial radiative forcing and the climate change case with RCP8.5 radiative forcing. The stationary control simulation's 1800-year long time series were used for stationary teleconnection and a 40-member ensemble from the period 1920–2100 is used for teleconnections during ongoing climate change. We analyzed seasonal temperature at a 2 m level, sea-level pressure, sea ice concentration, precipitation, geopotential height, and 10 m level wind speed. The Arctic was divided into seven areas. The Baltic Sea region climate has strong teleconnections with the Arctic climate; the strongest connections are with Svalbard and Greenland region. There is high seasonality in the teleconnections, with the strongest correlations in winter and the lowest correlations in summer, when the local meteorological factors are stronger. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climate indices can explain most teleconnections in winter and spring. During ongoing climate change, the teleconnection patterns did not show remarkable changes by the end of the 21st century. Minor pattern changes are between the Baltic Sea region temperature and the sea ice concentration. We calculated the correlation between the parameter and its ridge regression estimation to estimate different Arctic regions' collective statistical connections with the Baltic Sea region. The seasonal coefficient of determination, R 2 , was highest for winter: for T 2 m , R 2 =0.64 for sea level pressure (SLP), R 2 =0.44 and for precipitation (PREC), R 2 =0.35 . When doing the same for the seasons' previous month values in the Arctic, the relations are considerably weaker, with the highest R 2 =0.09 being for temperature in the spring. Hence, Arctic climate data forecasting capacity for the Baltic Sea region is weak. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Jakobson L. Jakobson |
author_facet |
E. Jakobson L. Jakobson |
author_sort |
E. Jakobson |
title |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_short |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_full |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea region as simulated by CESM1-LE |
title_sort |
atmospheric teleconnections between the arctic and the baltic sea region as simulated by cesm1-le |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 https://doaj.org/article/163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 |
genre |
Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Climate change Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Svalbard |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 155-165 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/155/2024/esd-15-155-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/163b4676cb8a46f69eda4827c93e1030 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-155-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
155 |
op_container_end_page |
165 |
_version_ |
1810439500696911872 |