A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)
Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional rel...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:158a9bab89e64442bddedc24e8c8edc8 2023-05-15T13:40:03+02:00 A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) P. A. Newman J. S. Daniel D. W. Waugh E. R. Nash 2007-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/158a9bab89e64442bddedc24e8c8edc8 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/4537/2007/acp-7-4537-2007.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/158a9bab89e64442bddedc24e8c8edc8 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 7, Iss 17, Pp 4537-4552 (2007) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2007 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T04:44:48Z Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This EESC can be more appropriately applied to various parts of the stratosphere because of this dependence on mean age-of-air. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. In this paper, we first provide a detailed description of the EESC calculation. We then use this EESC formulation to estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties and possible problems in the estimated times of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air and fractional release values, and the assumption that these quantities are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be significantly accelerated. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 P. A. Newman J. S. Daniel D. W. Waugh E. R. Nash A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This EESC can be more appropriately applied to various parts of the stratosphere because of this dependence on mean age-of-air. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. In this paper, we first provide a detailed description of the EESC calculation. We then use this EESC formulation to estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties and possible problems in the estimated times of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air and fractional release values, and the assumption that these quantities are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be significantly accelerated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. A. Newman J. S. Daniel D. W. Waugh E. R. Nash |
author_facet |
P. A. Newman J. S. Daniel D. W. Waugh E. R. Nash |
author_sort |
P. A. Newman |
title |
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
title_short |
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
title_full |
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
title_fullStr |
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
title_full_unstemmed |
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) |
title_sort |
new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (eesc) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/158a9bab89e64442bddedc24e8c8edc8 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 7, Iss 17, Pp 4537-4552 (2007) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/4537/2007/acp-7-4537-2007.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/158a9bab89e64442bddedc24e8c8edc8 |
_version_ |
1766127240352890880 |