Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the...
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2015
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://doaj.org/article/13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 2023-05-15T13:23:54+02:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate S. L. Cornford D. F. Martin A. J. Payne E. G. Ng A. M. Le Brocq R. M. Gladstone T. L. Edwards S. R. Shannon C. Agosta M. R. van den Broeke H. H. Hellmer G. Krinner S. R. M. Ligtenberg R. Timmermann D. G. Vaughan 2015-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://doaj.org/article/13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1579/2015/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://doaj.org/article/13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 1579-1600 (2015) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 2022-12-31T14:39:09Z We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) The Cryosphere 9 4 1579 1600 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 S. L. Cornford D. F. Martin A. J. Payne E. G. Ng A. M. Le Brocq R. M. Gladstone T. L. Edwards S. R. Shannon C. Agosta M. R. van den Broeke H. H. Hellmer G. Krinner S. R. M. Ligtenberg R. Timmermann D. G. Vaughan Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. L. Cornford D. F. Martin A. J. Payne E. G. Ng A. M. Le Brocq R. M. Gladstone T. L. Edwards S. R. Shannon C. Agosta M. R. van den Broeke H. H. Hellmer G. Krinner S. R. M. Ligtenberg R. Timmermann D. G. Vaughan |
author_facet |
S. L. Cornford D. F. Martin A. J. Payne E. G. Ng A. M. Le Brocq R. M. Gladstone T. L. Edwards S. R. Shannon C. Agosta M. R. van den Broeke H. H. Hellmer G. Krinner S. R. M. Ligtenberg R. Timmermann D. G. Vaughan |
author_sort |
S. L. Cornford |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://doaj.org/article/13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 1579-1600 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1579/2015/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://doaj.org/article/13aa4ae32bc94edfa30711f572e43513 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1579 |
op_container_end_page |
1600 |
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1766376245276180480 |