What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO?
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of variability across the Atlantic sector and is a key metric of extratropical forecast performance. Skilful predictions of the NAO are possible at medium‐range (1–2 weeks) and seasonal time scales. However, in a leading dynamical pre...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:13531292bf6547eab4b4e1e2e78d05bf 2023-05-15T17:35:44+02:00 What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? Chris Kent Adam A. Scaife Nick Dunstone 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/article/13531292bf6547eab4b4e1e2e78d05bf EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/article/13531292bf6547eab4b4e1e2e78d05bf Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 24, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) ensembles geophysical sphere scale atmosphere tools and methods seasonal Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 2023-04-09T00:36:06Z Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of variability across the Atlantic sector and is a key metric of extratropical forecast performance. Skilful predictions of the NAO are possible at medium‐range (1–2 weeks) and seasonal time scales. However, in a leading dynamical prediction system, we find that sub‐seasonal predictions (1 month NAO with a lead time of 20–30 days) are not statistically significant and represent a gap in forecast skill. In this study, we have investigated the potential for improving predictions using a large ensemble of dynamical hindcasts. First, we find that monthly predictions of the NAO are only weakly related to forecast errors at the medium‐range. This implies that improving medium‐range forecast performance is unlikely to drive significant improvements at longer lead times. Second, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the Tropics and projects onto the NAO with a lag of 10–15 days, but its teleconnection is only partially represented in current forecast systems. We, therefore, assess whether improved MJO‐NAO teleconnections are likely to lead to improved monthly NAO predictions. We find that even perfect MJO forecasts and teleconnections lead to only small improvements in NAO prediction skills. This work indicates that monthly timescales may represent a predictability gap for the NAO and hence the Euro‐Atlantic winter climate in which genuine skill improvements are difficult to achieve. Potential progress in this area could stem from currently unknown sources of skill and large initialised climate ensembles will be a vital tool for investigating these. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Science Letters 24 4 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ensembles geophysical sphere scale atmosphere tools and methods seasonal Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
ensembles geophysical sphere scale atmosphere tools and methods seasonal Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Chris Kent Adam A. Scaife Nick Dunstone What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
topic_facet |
ensembles geophysical sphere scale atmosphere tools and methods seasonal Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of variability across the Atlantic sector and is a key metric of extratropical forecast performance. Skilful predictions of the NAO are possible at medium‐range (1–2 weeks) and seasonal time scales. However, in a leading dynamical prediction system, we find that sub‐seasonal predictions (1 month NAO with a lead time of 20–30 days) are not statistically significant and represent a gap in forecast skill. In this study, we have investigated the potential for improving predictions using a large ensemble of dynamical hindcasts. First, we find that monthly predictions of the NAO are only weakly related to forecast errors at the medium‐range. This implies that improving medium‐range forecast performance is unlikely to drive significant improvements at longer lead times. Second, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the Tropics and projects onto the NAO with a lag of 10–15 days, but its teleconnection is only partially represented in current forecast systems. We, therefore, assess whether improved MJO‐NAO teleconnections are likely to lead to improved monthly NAO predictions. We find that even perfect MJO forecasts and teleconnections lead to only small improvements in NAO prediction skills. This work indicates that monthly timescales may represent a predictability gap for the NAO and hence the Euro‐Atlantic winter climate in which genuine skill improvements are difficult to achieve. Potential progress in this area could stem from currently unknown sources of skill and large initialised climate ensembles will be a vital tool for investigating these. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chris Kent Adam A. Scaife Nick Dunstone |
author_facet |
Chris Kent Adam A. Scaife Nick Dunstone |
author_sort |
Chris Kent |
title |
What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
title_short |
What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
title_full |
What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
title_fullStr |
What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
title_full_unstemmed |
What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO? |
title_sort |
what potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter nao? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/article/13531292bf6547eab4b4e1e2e78d05bf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 24, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.1146 https://doaj.org/article/13531292bf6547eab4b4e1e2e78d05bf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1146 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1766135001343066112 |