Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss
The surface air temperature in the northern mid-latitudes during winter showed a significant cooling trend from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This unexpected cooling, which was particularly strong across Eurasia, has been partly attributed t...
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Norwegian Polar Institute
2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1349f8ae508d4ba390a8624f4917f376 2023-05-15T14:35:08+02:00 Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss Hye-Jin Kim Seok-Woo Son 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3363 https://doaj.org/article/1349f8ae508d4ba390a8624f4917f376 EN eng Norwegian Polar Institute https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3363/10236 https://doaj.org/toc/1751-8369 1751-8369 doi:10.33265/polar.v39.3363 https://doaj.org/article/1349f8ae508d4ba390a8624f4917f376 Polar Research, Vol 39, Iss 0, Pp 1-11 (2020) warm arctic–cold eurasia eurasian winter cooling barents–kara sea-ice loss Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3363 2022-12-31T06:40:11Z The surface air temperature in the northern mid-latitudes during winter showed a significant cooling trend from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This unexpected cooling, which was particularly strong across Eurasia, has been partly attributed to Arctic sea-ice loss. Here, the statistical relationship between Arctic sea-ice loss and surface air-temperature change during winter in Eurasia, which is often referred to as the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern, is re-evaluated by using a break-point trend analysis and maximum covariance analysis. A significant time-lagged covariability is observed between the Arctic sea-ice concentration over the Barents–Kara seas and the Eurasian surface air temperature during winter, with the former leading the latter by approximately two months. More importantly, the timing of an abrupt decline in the autumn Arctic sea ice that occurred in the late 1990s is coincident with the beginning of the Eurasian winter cooling. This concurrent trend change is statistically significant and robustly found in both the break-point analysis and maximum covariance analysis. These results suggest that both the interannual variability and decadal trend change seen for the surface air temperature during Eurasian winters are likely influenced by regional sea-ice changes over the Barents–Kara seas. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea Polar Research Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Kara Sea Polar Research 39 0 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
warm arctic–cold eurasia eurasian winter cooling barents–kara sea-ice loss Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
warm arctic–cold eurasia eurasian winter cooling barents–kara sea-ice loss Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 Hye-Jin Kim Seok-Woo Son Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
topic_facet |
warm arctic–cold eurasia eurasian winter cooling barents–kara sea-ice loss Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
The surface air temperature in the northern mid-latitudes during winter showed a significant cooling trend from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This unexpected cooling, which was particularly strong across Eurasia, has been partly attributed to Arctic sea-ice loss. Here, the statistical relationship between Arctic sea-ice loss and surface air-temperature change during winter in Eurasia, which is often referred to as the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern, is re-evaluated by using a break-point trend analysis and maximum covariance analysis. A significant time-lagged covariability is observed between the Arctic sea-ice concentration over the Barents–Kara seas and the Eurasian surface air temperature during winter, with the former leading the latter by approximately two months. More importantly, the timing of an abrupt decline in the autumn Arctic sea ice that occurred in the late 1990s is coincident with the beginning of the Eurasian winter cooling. This concurrent trend change is statistically significant and robustly found in both the break-point analysis and maximum covariance analysis. These results suggest that both the interannual variability and decadal trend change seen for the surface air temperature during Eurasian winters are likely influenced by regional sea-ice changes over the Barents–Kara seas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hye-Jin Kim Seok-Woo Son |
author_facet |
Hye-Jin Kim Seok-Woo Son |
author_sort |
Hye-Jin Kim |
title |
Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
title_short |
Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
title_full |
Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss |
title_sort |
recent eurasian winter temperature change and its association with arctic sea-ice loss |
publisher |
Norwegian Polar Institute |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3363 https://doaj.org/article/1349f8ae508d4ba390a8624f4917f376 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Polar Research Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Polar Research Sea ice |
op_source |
Polar Research, Vol 39, Iss 0, Pp 1-11 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3363/10236 https://doaj.org/toc/1751-8369 1751-8369 doi:10.33265/polar.v39.3363 https://doaj.org/article/1349f8ae508d4ba390a8624f4917f376 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3363 |
container_title |
Polar Research |
container_volume |
39 |
container_issue |
0 |
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1766308013831880704 |