How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard
To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacie...
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Norwegian Polar Institute
2019
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb 2023-05-15T14:52:28+02:00 How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v38.3519 https://doaj.org/article/12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb EN eng Norwegian Polar Institute https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3519/9950 https://doaj.org/toc/1751-8369 1751-8369 doi:10.33265/polar.v38.3519 https://doaj.org/article/12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb Polar Research, Vol 38, Iss 0, Pp 1-14 (2019) climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v38.3519 2022-12-31T10:23:41Z To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacier disappearance, were projected. Firstly, steady-state simulations were performed to determine the best parameters for the ice-flow model, which were then used to simulate glacial dynamics. Based on the 21st-century Arctic warming trend in the fifth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evolution of the glacier was simulated under three hypothetical climatic scenarios: pessimistic, high-probability and optimistic. The results predicted that the glacier will retreat until disappearance under all three scenarios, and its disappearance time will likely be approximately 111 years (by 2120). Under all scenarios, glacier volume and area reductions will be slow at first, then fast and finally slow again at the end. In particular, glacial runoff will increase markedly until 2070 in the high-probability scenario, and the peak runoff will be double the current value. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change glacier Polar Research Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Svalbard Polar Research 38 0 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
topic_facet |
climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance Environmental sciences GE1-350 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacier disappearance, were projected. Firstly, steady-state simulations were performed to determine the best parameters for the ice-flow model, which were then used to simulate glacial dynamics. Based on the 21st-century Arctic warming trend in the fifth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evolution of the glacier was simulated under three hypothetical climatic scenarios: pessimistic, high-probability and optimistic. The results predicted that the glacier will retreat until disappearance under all three scenarios, and its disappearance time will likely be approximately 111 years (by 2120). Under all scenarios, glacier volume and area reductions will be slow at first, then fast and finally slow again at the end. In particular, glacial runoff will increase markedly until 2070 in the high-probability scenario, and the peak runoff will be double the current value. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai |
author_facet |
Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai |
author_sort |
Zemin Wang |
title |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_short |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_full |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_fullStr |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_full_unstemmed |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_sort |
how long will an arctic mountain glacier survive? a case study of austre lovénbreen, svalbard |
publisher |
Norwegian Polar Institute |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v38.3519 https://doaj.org/article/12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change glacier Polar Research Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change glacier Polar Research Svalbard |
op_source |
Polar Research, Vol 38, Iss 0, Pp 1-14 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3519/9950 https://doaj.org/toc/1751-8369 1751-8369 doi:10.33265/polar.v38.3519 https://doaj.org/article/12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v38.3519 |
container_title |
Polar Research |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
0 |
_version_ |
1766323705377456128 |