The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study
A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:120898ab26274d9997288569b12ac1df 2023-07-16T03:53:21+02:00 The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study T. Reddmann M. Sinnhuber J. M. Wissing O. Yakovchuk I. Usoskin 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 https://doaj.org/article/120898ab26274d9997288569b12ac1df EN eng Copernicus Publications https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/6989/2023/acp-23-6989-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/120898ab26274d9997288569b12ac1df Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 23, Pp 6989-7000 (2023) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 2023-06-25T00:34:08Z A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm (GMS), and we compare the contribution of the two extreme events. The strongest known and best-documented ESPE of 774/5 CE is taken as a reference example and established estimates of the corresponding ionization rates are applied. The ionization rates due to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during an extreme GMS are upscaled from analyzed distributions of electron energy spectra of observed GMSs. The consecutive buildup of NO x and HO x by ionization is modeled in the high-top 3D chemistry circulation model KArlsruhe SImulation Model of the middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), using specified dynamics from ERA-Interim analyses up to the stratopause. A specific dynamical situation was chosen that includes an elevated stratosphere event during January and maximizes the vertical coupling between the northern polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region and the stratosphere; it therefore allows us to estimate a maximum possible impact. The particle event initially produces about 65 Gmol of NO y , with 25 Gmol of excess NO y even after 1 year. The related ozone loss reaches up to 50 % in the upper stratosphere during the first weeks after the event and slowly descends to the mid-stratosphere. After about 1 year, 20 % ozone loss is still observed in the northern stratosphere. The GMS causes strong ozone reduction in the mesosphere but plays only a minor role in the reduction in total ozone. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the long-lived NO y in the polar stratosphere, which is produced almost solely by the ESPE, is transported into the Antarctic polar vortex, where it experiences strong denitrification into the troposphere. For this special case, we estimate a NO 3 washout that could produce a measurable signal in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23 12 6989 7000 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 T. Reddmann M. Sinnhuber J. M. Wissing O. Yakovchuk I. Usoskin The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm (GMS), and we compare the contribution of the two extreme events. The strongest known and best-documented ESPE of 774/5 CE is taken as a reference example and established estimates of the corresponding ionization rates are applied. The ionization rates due to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during an extreme GMS are upscaled from analyzed distributions of electron energy spectra of observed GMSs. The consecutive buildup of NO x and HO x by ionization is modeled in the high-top 3D chemistry circulation model KArlsruhe SImulation Model of the middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), using specified dynamics from ERA-Interim analyses up to the stratopause. A specific dynamical situation was chosen that includes an elevated stratosphere event during January and maximizes the vertical coupling between the northern polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region and the stratosphere; it therefore allows us to estimate a maximum possible impact. The particle event initially produces about 65 Gmol of NO y , with 25 Gmol of excess NO y even after 1 year. The related ozone loss reaches up to 50 % in the upper stratosphere during the first weeks after the event and slowly descends to the mid-stratosphere. After about 1 year, 20 % ozone loss is still observed in the northern stratosphere. The GMS causes strong ozone reduction in the mesosphere but plays only a minor role in the reduction in total ozone. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the long-lived NO y in the polar stratosphere, which is produced almost solely by the ESPE, is transported into the Antarctic polar vortex, where it experiences strong denitrification into the troposphere. For this special case, we estimate a NO 3 washout that could produce a measurable signal in ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Reddmann M. Sinnhuber J. M. Wissing O. Yakovchuk I. Usoskin |
author_facet |
T. Reddmann M. Sinnhuber J. M. Wissing O. Yakovchuk I. Usoskin |
author_sort |
T. Reddmann |
title |
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
title_short |
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
title_full |
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
title_fullStr |
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
title_sort |
impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 https://doaj.org/article/120898ab26274d9997288569b12ac1df |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 23, Pp 6989-7000 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/6989/2023/acp-23-6989-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/120898ab26274d9997288569b12ac1df |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
6989 |
op_container_end_page |
7000 |
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1771549943503257600 |