Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:12088ba8168e4fdc940286b8752fe912 2023-05-15T15:13:00+02:00 Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. Carrie A Manore Richard S Ostfeld Folashade B Agusto Holly Gaff Shannon L LaDeau 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 https://doaj.org/article/12088ba8168e4fdc940286b8752fe912 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5319773?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 https://doaj.org/article/12088ba8168e4fdc940286b8752fe912 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 1, p e0005255 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 2022-12-31T15:00:28Z The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 1 e0005255 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Carrie A Manore Richard S Ostfeld Folashade B Agusto Holly Gaff Shannon L LaDeau Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carrie A Manore Richard S Ostfeld Folashade B Agusto Holly Gaff Shannon L LaDeau |
author_facet |
Carrie A Manore Richard S Ostfeld Folashade B Agusto Holly Gaff Shannon L LaDeau |
author_sort |
Carrie A Manore |
title |
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
title_short |
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
title_full |
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
title_fullStr |
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States. |
title_sort |
defining the risk of zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern united states. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 https://doaj.org/article/12088ba8168e4fdc940286b8752fe912 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 1, p e0005255 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5319773?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 https://doaj.org/article/12088ba8168e4fdc940286b8752fe912 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005255 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e0005255 |
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1766343599530704896 |