Stochastic lattice-based modelling of malaria dynamics

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Phong V. V. Le, Praveen Kumar, Marilyn O. Ruiz
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2018
• Subjects: Malaria; Climate change; Metapopulation; Stochastic; Ecohydrology; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-018-2397-z; https://doaj.org/article/117c3623683c444a8191fd611b7ef409

Abstract Background The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. In addition, the dispersal of Anopheles mosquitoes is a key determinant that affects the persistence and dynamics of malaria. Simple, lumped-population models of malaria prevalence have been insufficient for predicting the complex responses of malaria to environmental changes. Methods and results A stochastic lattice-based model that couples a mosquito dispersal and a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemics model was developed for predicting the dynamics of malaria in heterogeneous environments. The It$$\hat{o}$$ o^ approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motion was used to derive a model of stochastic differential equations. The results show that stochastic equations that capture uncertainties in the life cycle of mosquitoes and interactions among vectors, parasites, and hosts provide a mechanism for the disruptions of malaria. Finally, model simulations for a case study in the rural area of Kilifi county, Kenya are presented. Conclusions A stochastic lattice-based integrated malaria model has been developed. The applicability of the model for capturing the climate-driven hydrologic factors and demographic variability on malaria transmission has been demonstrated.