Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phas...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf 2023-09-05T13:22:25+02:00 Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f https://doaj.org/article/114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 8, p 084040 (2020) permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f 2023-08-13T00:37:02Z Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921–2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 , similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 . Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 15 8 084040 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
topic_facet |
permafrost anthropogenic forcing natural forcing air temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Given the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921–2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 , similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 . Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 × 10 ^6 km ^2 decade ^−1 on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky |
author_facet |
Donglin Guo Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Tingjun Zhang Vladimir E Romanovsky |
author_sort |
Donglin Guo |
title |
Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
title_short |
Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
title_full |
Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
title_fullStr |
Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
title_sort |
attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f https://doaj.org/article/114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 8, p 084040 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/114712b82a774c84817d5fc862325faf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084040 |
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1776202927771222016 |