Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast
Heavy rainfall events, typically associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), provoke intense flooding, consequently causing severe losses to life and property. Therefore, the amount and distribution of rain associated with TCs must be forecasted precisely within a reasonable time to guarantee the prote...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:114308a1c86a408493d0b3eb45d97a0c 2023-05-15T17:33:47+02:00 Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast José C. Fernández-Alvarez Albenis Pérez-Alarcon Alfo J. Batista-Leyva Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/article/114308a1c86a408493d0b3eb45d97a0c EN eng Hindawi Limited http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/article/114308a1c86a408493d0b3eb45d97a0c Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2020 (2020) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 2022-12-31T07:59:29Z Heavy rainfall events, typically associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), provoke intense flooding, consequently causing severe losses to life and property. Therefore, the amount and distribution of rain associated with TCs must be forecasted precisely within a reasonable time to guarantee the protection of lives and goods. In this study, the skill of the Numerical Tool for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) for determining rainfall pattern, average rainfall, rainfall volume, and extreme amounts of rain observed during TCs is evaluated against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. A sample comprising nine systems formed in the North Atlantic basin from 2016 to 2018 is used, where the analysis begins 24 h before landfall. Several statistical indices characterising the abilities of the NTHF and climatology and persistence model for rainfalls (R-CLIPER) for forecasting rain as measured by the TRMM are calculated at 24, 48, and 72 h forecasts for each TC and averaged. The model under consideration presents better forecasting skills than the R-CLIPER for all the attributes evaluated and demonstrates similar performances compared with models reported in the literature. The proposed model predicts the average rainfall well and presents a good description of the rain pattern. However, its forecast of extreme rain is only applicable for 24 h. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Advances in Meteorology 2020 1 16 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 José C. Fernández-Alvarez Albenis Pérez-Alarcon Alfo J. Batista-Leyva Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Heavy rainfall events, typically associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), provoke intense flooding, consequently causing severe losses to life and property. Therefore, the amount and distribution of rain associated with TCs must be forecasted precisely within a reasonable time to guarantee the protection of lives and goods. In this study, the skill of the Numerical Tool for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) for determining rainfall pattern, average rainfall, rainfall volume, and extreme amounts of rain observed during TCs is evaluated against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. A sample comprising nine systems formed in the North Atlantic basin from 2016 to 2018 is used, where the analysis begins 24 h before landfall. Several statistical indices characterising the abilities of the NTHF and climatology and persistence model for rainfalls (R-CLIPER) for forecasting rain as measured by the TRMM are calculated at 24, 48, and 72 h forecasts for each TC and averaged. The model under consideration presents better forecasting skills than the R-CLIPER for all the attributes evaluated and demonstrates similar performances compared with models reported in the literature. The proposed model predicts the average rainfall well and presents a good description of the rain pattern. However, its forecast of extreme rain is only applicable for 24 h. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
José C. Fernández-Alvarez Albenis Pérez-Alarcon Alfo J. Batista-Leyva Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez |
author_facet |
José C. Fernández-Alvarez Albenis Pérez-Alarcon Alfo J. Batista-Leyva Oscar Díaz-Rodríguez |
author_sort |
José C. Fernández-Alvarez |
title |
Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
title_short |
Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
title_full |
Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast of System: Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast |
title_sort |
evaluation of precipitation forecast of system: numerical tools for hurricane forecast |
publisher |
Hindawi Limited |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/article/114308a1c86a408493d0b3eb45d97a0c |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2020 (2020) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2020/8815949 https://doaj.org/article/114308a1c86a408493d0b3eb45d97a0c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8815949 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2020 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
16 |
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1766132408776654848 |