Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China.
Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of hum...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:108433534bae4854ba1e3607ea7821fe 2023-05-15T15:16:43+02:00 Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. Wen-Gao Lu Danni Ai Hong Song Yuan Xie Shuqing Liu Wuyang Zhu Jian Yang 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/article/108433534bae4854ba1e3607ea7821fe EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/article/108433534bae4854ba1e3607ea7821fe PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009527 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 2022-12-31T05:03:49Z Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies. Results Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers. Conclusions Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 7 e0009527 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Wen-Gao Lu Danni Ai Hong Song Yuan Xie Shuqing Liu Wuyang Zhu Jian Yang Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies. Results Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers. Conclusions Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wen-Gao Lu Danni Ai Hong Song Yuan Xie Shuqing Liu Wuyang Zhu Jian Yang |
author_facet |
Wen-Gao Lu Danni Ai Hong Song Yuan Xie Shuqing Liu Wuyang Zhu Jian Yang |
author_sort |
Wen-Gao Lu |
title |
Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
title_short |
Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
title_full |
Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
title_fullStr |
Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China. |
title_sort |
epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/article/108433534bae4854ba1e3607ea7821fe |
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Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 7, p e0009527 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 https://doaj.org/article/108433534bae4854ba1e3607ea7821fe |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009527 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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e0009527 |
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