Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather
Arctic sea ice was observed to be at a new record minimum in September 2012. Following this summer minimum, northern Eurasia and much of North America experienced severe winter weather during the winter of 2012/2013. A statistical model that used Eurasian snow cover as its main predictor successfull...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1056c4a02d5b448fb83141c430d833b3 2023-05-15T14:33:31+02:00 Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather Judah Cohen Justin Jones Jason C. Furtado Eli Tziperman 2013-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 https://doaj.org/article/1056c4a02d5b448fb83141c430d833b3 EN eng The Oceanography Society http://tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 1042-8275 https://doaj.org/article/1056c4a02d5b448fb83141c430d833b3 Oceanography, Vol 26, Iss 4, Pp 150-160 (2013) Arctic sea ice climate change sea ice minimum melting sea ice sea ice Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 2022-12-31T09:25:31Z Arctic sea ice was observed to be at a new record minimum in September 2012. Following this summer minimum, northern Eurasia and much of North America experienced severe winter weather during the winter of 2012/2013. A statistical model that used Eurasian snow cover as its main predictor successfully forecast the observed cold winter temperatures. We propose that the large melting of Arctic sea ice may be related to the rapid advance of snow cover, similar to the connection made in studies of past climates between low Arctic sea ice and enhanced continental snowfalls and glacial inception via ice sheet growth. Regressions between autumnal sea ice extent and Eurasian snow cover extent and Northern Hemisphere temperatures yield the characteristic "warm Arctic/cold continents" pattern. This pattern was observed during winter 2012/2013, and it is common among years with observed low autumn sea ice, rapid autumn snow cover advance, and a negative winter Arctic Oscillation. Dynamical models fail to capture this pattern, instead showing maximum warming over the Arctic Ocean and widespread winter warming over the adjacent continents. We suggest that the simulated widespread warming may be due to incorrect sea ice-atmosphere coupling, including an incorrect triggering of positive feedback between low sea ice and atmospheric convection, resulting in significant model errors that are evident in seasonal predictions and that potentially impact future climate change projections Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Oceanography 26 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice climate change sea ice minimum melting sea ice sea ice Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice climate change sea ice minimum melting sea ice sea ice Oceanography GC1-1581 Judah Cohen Justin Jones Jason C. Furtado Eli Tziperman Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice climate change sea ice minimum melting sea ice sea ice Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Arctic sea ice was observed to be at a new record minimum in September 2012. Following this summer minimum, northern Eurasia and much of North America experienced severe winter weather during the winter of 2012/2013. A statistical model that used Eurasian snow cover as its main predictor successfully forecast the observed cold winter temperatures. We propose that the large melting of Arctic sea ice may be related to the rapid advance of snow cover, similar to the connection made in studies of past climates between low Arctic sea ice and enhanced continental snowfalls and glacial inception via ice sheet growth. Regressions between autumnal sea ice extent and Eurasian snow cover extent and Northern Hemisphere temperatures yield the characteristic "warm Arctic/cold continents" pattern. This pattern was observed during winter 2012/2013, and it is common among years with observed low autumn sea ice, rapid autumn snow cover advance, and a negative winter Arctic Oscillation. Dynamical models fail to capture this pattern, instead showing maximum warming over the Arctic Ocean and widespread winter warming over the adjacent continents. We suggest that the simulated widespread warming may be due to incorrect sea ice-atmosphere coupling, including an incorrect triggering of positive feedback between low sea ice and atmospheric convection, resulting in significant model errors that are evident in seasonal predictions and that potentially impact future climate change projections |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Judah Cohen Justin Jones Jason C. Furtado Eli Tziperman |
author_facet |
Judah Cohen Justin Jones Jason C. Furtado Eli Tziperman |
author_sort |
Judah Cohen |
title |
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
title_short |
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
title_full |
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
title_fullStr |
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
title_full_unstemmed |
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents: A Common Pattern Related to Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Snow Advance, and Extreme Winter Weather |
title_sort |
warm arctic, cold continents: a common pattern related to arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather |
publisher |
The Oceanography Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 https://doaj.org/article/1056c4a02d5b448fb83141c430d833b3 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_source |
Oceanography, Vol 26, Iss 4, Pp 150-160 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 1042-8275 https://doaj.org/article/1056c4a02d5b448fb83141c430d833b3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.70 |
container_title |
Oceanography |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766306736101130240 |