Hybrid Warfare at Sea? Russia, Svalbard and the Arctic

• Published in: Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies
• Main Authors: Cecilie Juul Stensrud, Andreas Østhagen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Scandinavian Military Studies 2024
• Subjects: hybrid threats; hybrid operations; hybrid warfare; russia; arctic security; svalbard; Military Science; U; Svalbard
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.31374/sjms.233; https://doaj.org/article/0f7cb1d5f587497dbad0e8ac3d3f2543

“Hybrid warfare” is a term increasingly used to refer to complex threat scenarios where the actors, means and intentions are not always apparent. Changes in the Arctic’s geopolitical environment have drawn attention to the waters around the northernmost part of Norway – the Svalbard archipelago. Scholars and officials increasingly view the four-decades-old dispute over jurisdiction in these waters as a vulnerability of Norwegian (and NATO’s) security. But how accurate are such threat descriptions? What form could Russian hybrid activities in Arctic waters assume? How useful is the hybrid analysis toolkit for understanding security interests and dynamics in case studies related to the maritime domain? Here we re-examine a specific maritime dispute in the context of increased tension in the European parts of the Arctic, employing a framework consisting of three dimensions of hybrid activity at sea, alongside a more granular conceptualization of hybrid activities as either threats, operations, or warfare. This approach also allows us to fine-tune how hybrid activity at sea more generally is conceptualized. Drawing on this analytical framework and our empirical analysis of Svalbard before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we conclude that while the current situation in these Arctic waters does not constitute hybrid warfare, it can be assumed that operations are, however, taking place, albeit to a limited extent. And an active threat is undoubtedly present.