Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes
Precipitation on Svalbard can generally be linked to the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Atlantic. Using an automated circulation type classification, we show that weather type statistics are well represented in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). For...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0f6a9fdad216430396837907e26fa4e2 2023-05-15T18:29:21+02:00 Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes Andreas Dobler Julia Lutz Oskar Landgren Jan Erik Haugen 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121378 https://doaj.org/article/0f6a9fdad216430396837907e26fa4e2 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/12/1378 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11121378 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/0f6a9fdad216430396837907e26fa4e2 Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 1378, p 1378 (2020) convection permitting climate modelling COSMO-CLM Svalbard precipitation integrated water vapour projections Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121378 2022-12-31T04:52:04Z Precipitation on Svalbard can generally be linked to the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Atlantic. Using an automated circulation type classification, we show that weather type statistics are well represented in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). For a future climate projection following the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP8.5, we find only small changes in the statistics. However, convection permitting simulations with the regional climate model from the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) covering Svalbard at 2.5 km demonstrate an increase in precipitation for all seasons. About 74% of the increase are coming from changes under cyclonic weather situations. The precipitation changes are strongly related to differences in atmospheric conditions, while the contribution from the frequencies of weather types is small. Observations on Svalbard suggest that the general weather situation favouring heavy precipitation events is a strong south-southwesterly flow with advection of water vapour from warmer areas. This is reproduced by the COSMO-CLM simulations. In the future projections, the maximum daily precipitation amounts are further increasing. At the same time, weather types with less moisture advection towards Svalbard are becoming more important. Article in Journal/Newspaper Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Svalbard Atmosphere 11 12 1378 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
convection permitting climate modelling COSMO-CLM Svalbard precipitation integrated water vapour projections Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
convection permitting climate modelling COSMO-CLM Svalbard precipitation integrated water vapour projections Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Andreas Dobler Julia Lutz Oskar Landgren Jan Erik Haugen Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
topic_facet |
convection permitting climate modelling COSMO-CLM Svalbard precipitation integrated water vapour projections Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Precipitation on Svalbard can generally be linked to the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Atlantic. Using an automated circulation type classification, we show that weather type statistics are well represented in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). For a future climate projection following the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP8.5, we find only small changes in the statistics. However, convection permitting simulations with the regional climate model from the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) covering Svalbard at 2.5 km demonstrate an increase in precipitation for all seasons. About 74% of the increase are coming from changes under cyclonic weather situations. The precipitation changes are strongly related to differences in atmospheric conditions, while the contribution from the frequencies of weather types is small. Observations on Svalbard suggest that the general weather situation favouring heavy precipitation events is a strong south-southwesterly flow with advection of water vapour from warmer areas. This is reproduced by the COSMO-CLM simulations. In the future projections, the maximum daily precipitation amounts are further increasing. At the same time, weather types with less moisture advection towards Svalbard are becoming more important. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andreas Dobler Julia Lutz Oskar Landgren Jan Erik Haugen |
author_facet |
Andreas Dobler Julia Lutz Oskar Landgren Jan Erik Haugen |
author_sort |
Andreas Dobler |
title |
Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
title_short |
Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
title_full |
Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
title_fullStr |
Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes |
title_sort |
circulation specific precipitation patterns over svalbard and projected future changes |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121378 https://doaj.org/article/0f6a9fdad216430396837907e26fa4e2 |
geographic |
Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard |
genre |
Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Svalbard |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 1378, p 1378 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/12/1378 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11121378 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/0f6a9fdad216430396837907e26fa4e2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121378 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1378 |
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1766212304467132416 |