Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Aodhan J. Sweeney, Qiang Fu, Stephen Po‐Chedley, Hailong Wang, Muyin Wang
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
internal variability
Arctic amplification
machine learning
global warming
pattern of warming
Arctic warming
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Global warming
Kara Sea
Southern Ocean
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108798
https://doaj.org/article/0ed593514f534366a02dec6d8cdf31a0
Description
Summary:Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

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