Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models
Abstract Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life‐history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life‐history trade‐offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0e639fa1325449a3914805e5d10726a0 2023-05-15T15:46:08+02:00 Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models Thomas V. Riecke Benjamin S. Sedinger Perry J. Williams Alan G. Leach James S. Sedinger 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/article/0e639fa1325449a3914805e5d10726a0 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/article/0e639fa1325449a3914805e5d10726a0 Ecology and Evolution, Vol 9, Iss 23, Pp 13521-13531 (2019) black brent Branta bernicla nigricans capture–recapture demography fitness hyperpriors Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 2022-12-31T06:29:54Z Abstract Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life‐history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life‐history trade‐offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ2) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture–mark–recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988–2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181–0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture–recapture or capture‐recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small. Article in Journal/Newspaper Branta bernicla brent geese Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Yukon Ecology and Evolution 9 23 13521 13531 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
black brent Branta bernicla nigricans capture–recapture demography fitness hyperpriors Ecology QH540-549.5 |
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black brent Branta bernicla nigricans capture–recapture demography fitness hyperpriors Ecology QH540-549.5 Thomas V. Riecke Benjamin S. Sedinger Perry J. Williams Alan G. Leach James S. Sedinger Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
topic_facet |
black brent Branta bernicla nigricans capture–recapture demography fitness hyperpriors Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life‐history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life‐history trade‐offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ2) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture–mark–recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988–2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181–0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture–recapture or capture‐recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thomas V. Riecke Benjamin S. Sedinger Perry J. Williams Alan G. Leach James S. Sedinger |
author_facet |
Thomas V. Riecke Benjamin S. Sedinger Perry J. Williams Alan G. Leach James S. Sedinger |
author_sort |
Thomas V. Riecke |
title |
Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
title_short |
Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
title_full |
Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
title_fullStr |
Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
title_sort |
estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/article/0e639fa1325449a3914805e5d10726a0 |
geographic |
Yukon |
geographic_facet |
Yukon |
genre |
Branta bernicla brent geese Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Branta bernicla brent geese Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution, Vol 9, Iss 23, Pp 13521-13531 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.5809 https://doaj.org/article/0e639fa1325449a3914805e5d10726a0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5809 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
13521 |
op_container_end_page |
13531 |
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1766380815638331392 |