Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to pro...
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Canadian Science Publishing
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 https://doaj.org/article/0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 2023-05-15T17:45:40+02:00 Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change Heike K. Lotze Stefanie Mellon Jonathan Coyne Matthew Betts Meghan Burchell Katja Fennel Marisa A. Dusseault Susanna D. Fuller Eric Galbraith Lina Garcia Suarez Laura de Gelleke Nina Golombek Brianne Kelly Sarah D. Kuehn Eric Oliver Megan MacKinnon Wendy Muraoka Ian T.G. Predham Krysten Rutherford Nancy Shackell Owen Sherwood Elizabeth C. Sibert Markus Kienast 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 https://doaj.org/article/0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 EN eng Canadian Science Publishing https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 https://doaj.org/toc/2371-1671 doi:10.1139/facets-2021-0197 2371-1671 https://doaj.org/article/0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 FACETS, Vol 7, Iss , Pp 1142-1184 (2022) Climate change environmental archives historical reconstruction marine conservation planning shifting baselines future projections Education L Science Q article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 2022-12-30T22:40:07Z The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 13 8 1242 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change environmental archives historical reconstruction marine conservation planning shifting baselines future projections Education L Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Climate change environmental archives historical reconstruction marine conservation planning shifting baselines future projections Education L Science Q Heike K. Lotze Stefanie Mellon Jonathan Coyne Matthew Betts Meghan Burchell Katja Fennel Marisa A. Dusseault Susanna D. Fuller Eric Galbraith Lina Garcia Suarez Laura de Gelleke Nina Golombek Brianne Kelly Sarah D. Kuehn Eric Oliver Megan MacKinnon Wendy Muraoka Ian T.G. Predham Krysten Rutherford Nancy Shackell Owen Sherwood Elizabeth C. Sibert Markus Kienast Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
topic_facet |
Climate change environmental archives historical reconstruction marine conservation planning shifting baselines future projections Education L Science Q |
description |
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Heike K. Lotze Stefanie Mellon Jonathan Coyne Matthew Betts Meghan Burchell Katja Fennel Marisa A. Dusseault Susanna D. Fuller Eric Galbraith Lina Garcia Suarez Laura de Gelleke Nina Golombek Brianne Kelly Sarah D. Kuehn Eric Oliver Megan MacKinnon Wendy Muraoka Ian T.G. Predham Krysten Rutherford Nancy Shackell Owen Sherwood Elizabeth C. Sibert Markus Kienast |
author_facet |
Heike K. Lotze Stefanie Mellon Jonathan Coyne Matthew Betts Meghan Burchell Katja Fennel Marisa A. Dusseault Susanna D. Fuller Eric Galbraith Lina Garcia Suarez Laura de Gelleke Nina Golombek Brianne Kelly Sarah D. Kuehn Eric Oliver Megan MacKinnon Wendy Muraoka Ian T.G. Predham Krysten Rutherford Nancy Shackell Owen Sherwood Elizabeth C. Sibert Markus Kienast |
author_sort |
Heike K. Lotze |
title |
Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
title_short |
Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
title_full |
Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
title_fullStr |
Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
title_sort |
long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 https://doaj.org/article/0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
FACETS, Vol 7, Iss , Pp 1142-1184 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 https://doaj.org/toc/2371-1671 doi:10.1139/facets-2021-0197 2371-1671 https://doaj.org/article/0d515ed127294093b4c358b953f37763 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1242 |
_version_ |
1766148872612085760 |