Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models
Our previous study revealed the link between Barents–Kara sea ice and rainfall in eastern China. This study continues evaluating the performance of multiple models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating this linkage. Most CMIP6 models can simulate Arctic sea...
Published in: | Atmosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061044 https://doaj.org/article/0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 2023-07-23T04:17:00+02:00 Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models Haohan Chen Jian Rao Huidi Yang Jingjia Luo Gangsen Wu 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061044 https://doaj.org/article/0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/6/1044 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos14061044 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 Atmosphere, Vol 14, Iss 1044, p 1044 (2023) Barents–Kara seas Arctic sea ice China rainfall CMIP6 stratosphere–troposphere coupling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061044 2023-07-02T00:39:01Z Our previous study revealed the link between Barents–Kara sea ice and rainfall in eastern China. This study continues evaluating the performance of multiple models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating this linkage. Most CMIP6 models can simulate Arctic sea ice coverage in the present climate system, although the sea ice extent in the edge areas show some biases. Only a few models can roughly reproduce the observed rainfall dipole pattern associated with Arctic sea ice variability. The linkage between Arctic sea ice variability in winter and eastern China rainfall in early summer is performed through a long memory of the sea ice, the stratospheric variability as the mediator, and downward propagation of stratospheric signals. Very few CMIP6 models can exhibit a realistic interannual relationship between the Arctic sea ice and China rainfall. The selected high-skill models with a more realistic linkage between sea ice and China rainfall present a clear downward impact of the stratospheric circulation anomalies associated with sea ice variability. The reversal of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) from the negative phase in early winter to the positive phase in spring in the high-skill models and observations denotes the important role of the stratosphere as a mediator to bridge the Arctic sea ice and China rainfall. The long memory of the Arctic sea ice with the stratosphere as the mediator has a deep implication on the seasonal forecasts of East Asian countries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Kara Sea Atmosphere 14 6 1044 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Barents–Kara seas Arctic sea ice China rainfall CMIP6 stratosphere–troposphere coupling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Barents–Kara seas Arctic sea ice China rainfall CMIP6 stratosphere–troposphere coupling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Haohan Chen Jian Rao Huidi Yang Jingjia Luo Gangsen Wu Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
Barents–Kara seas Arctic sea ice China rainfall CMIP6 stratosphere–troposphere coupling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Our previous study revealed the link between Barents–Kara sea ice and rainfall in eastern China. This study continues evaluating the performance of multiple models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating this linkage. Most CMIP6 models can simulate Arctic sea ice coverage in the present climate system, although the sea ice extent in the edge areas show some biases. Only a few models can roughly reproduce the observed rainfall dipole pattern associated with Arctic sea ice variability. The linkage between Arctic sea ice variability in winter and eastern China rainfall in early summer is performed through a long memory of the sea ice, the stratospheric variability as the mediator, and downward propagation of stratospheric signals. Very few CMIP6 models can exhibit a realistic interannual relationship between the Arctic sea ice and China rainfall. The selected high-skill models with a more realistic linkage between sea ice and China rainfall present a clear downward impact of the stratospheric circulation anomalies associated with sea ice variability. The reversal of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) from the negative phase in early winter to the positive phase in spring in the high-skill models and observations denotes the important role of the stratosphere as a mediator to bridge the Arctic sea ice and China rainfall. The long memory of the Arctic sea ice with the stratosphere as the mediator has a deep implication on the seasonal forecasts of East Asian countries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Haohan Chen Jian Rao Huidi Yang Jingjia Luo Gangsen Wu |
author_facet |
Haohan Chen Jian Rao Huidi Yang Jingjia Luo Gangsen Wu |
author_sort |
Haohan Chen |
title |
Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Underrepresentation of the Linkage between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and East Asian Rainfall in Early Summer by CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
underrepresentation of the linkage between the barents–kara sea ice and east asian rainfall in early summer by cmip6 models |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061044 https://doaj.org/article/0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 14, Iss 1044, p 1044 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/6/1044 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos14061044 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/0c7a29584b1549acabb55585a772f6f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14061044 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1044 |
_version_ |
1772178163982401536 |