Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation
The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremel...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 https://doaj.org/article/0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 2024-02-11T10:06:05+01:00 Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation L. Wallberg L. Suarez-Gutierrez D. Matei W. A. Müller 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 https://doaj.org/article/0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1/2024/esd-15-1-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 1-14 (2024) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 2024-01-14T01:50:35Z The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 15 1 1 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 L. Wallberg L. Suarez-Gutierrez D. Matei W. A. Müller Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L. Wallberg L. Suarez-Gutierrez D. Matei W. A. Müller |
author_facet |
L. Wallberg L. Suarez-Gutierrez D. Matei W. A. Müller |
author_sort |
L. Wallberg |
title |
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
title_short |
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
title_full |
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
title_fullStr |
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
title_sort |
extremely warm european summers preceded by sub-decadal north atlantic ocean heat accumulation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 https://doaj.org/article/0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 15, Pp 1-14 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1/2024/esd-15-1-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/0c4c53d9d9f043e4ae41300be363c145 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
14 |
_version_ |
1790603508152532992 |