Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline
Flooding in low-lying coastal zones arises from coastal (storm surge, tides, and waves), fluvial (excessive river discharge), and pluvial (excessive surface runoff) drivers. We analyse changes in compound flooding potential around the contiguous United States (CONUS) coastline stemming from select c...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0c13dca043c340e985cff8313a428054 2023-10-01T03:54:16+02:00 Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline Ahmed A. Nasr Thomas Wahl Md Mamunur Rashid Robert A. Jane Paula Camus Ivan D. Haigh 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 https://doaj.org/article/0c13dca043c340e985cff8313a428054 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000476 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 https://doaj.org/article/0c13dca043c340e985cff8313a428054 Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 41, Iss , Pp 100594- (2023) Compound flooding Copula Dependence Flood risk Temporal changes United States Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 2023-09-03T00:53:03Z Flooding in low-lying coastal zones arises from coastal (storm surge, tides, and waves), fluvial (excessive river discharge), and pluvial (excessive surface runoff) drivers. We analyse changes in compound flooding potential around the contiguous United States (CONUS) coastline stemming from select combinations of these flooding drivers using long observational records with at least 55 years of data. We assess temporal changes in the tail (extremal) dependence (χ) using a 30-year sliding time window. Periods of strong tail dependence are found for the windows centered between the 1960s and 1980s/1990s at several locations for surge-discharge (S-Q) and surge-precipitation (S–P) combinations. Changes in dependence are associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation indices (Niño 1.2 and Niño 3), among others. The significance of potential changes in the dependence structure is subsequently tested using Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. We find that changes are mostly not significant. Finally, we perform a complete multivariate statistical analysis exemplarily for one selected pair of variables at one location (S-Q in Washington, DC), allowing for varying dependence strength and structure as well as changes in the marginal distributions. Combined changes with increase in the dependence and marginals exacerbate the predicted compound flood potential. The comprehensive analysis presented here provides new insights into how and where compound flooding potential has changed with time, demonstrates associated links with large-scale climate indices, and highlights the effects of changes in the dependence and marginals in a multivariate statistical framework. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Weather and Climate Extremes 41 100594 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Compound flooding Copula Dependence Flood risk Temporal changes United States Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Compound flooding Copula Dependence Flood risk Temporal changes United States Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ahmed A. Nasr Thomas Wahl Md Mamunur Rashid Robert A. Jane Paula Camus Ivan D. Haigh Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
topic_facet |
Compound flooding Copula Dependence Flood risk Temporal changes United States Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Flooding in low-lying coastal zones arises from coastal (storm surge, tides, and waves), fluvial (excessive river discharge), and pluvial (excessive surface runoff) drivers. We analyse changes in compound flooding potential around the contiguous United States (CONUS) coastline stemming from select combinations of these flooding drivers using long observational records with at least 55 years of data. We assess temporal changes in the tail (extremal) dependence (χ) using a 30-year sliding time window. Periods of strong tail dependence are found for the windows centered between the 1960s and 1980s/1990s at several locations for surge-discharge (S-Q) and surge-precipitation (S–P) combinations. Changes in dependence are associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation indices (Niño 1.2 and Niño 3), among others. The significance of potential changes in the dependence structure is subsequently tested using Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. We find that changes are mostly not significant. Finally, we perform a complete multivariate statistical analysis exemplarily for one selected pair of variables at one location (S-Q in Washington, DC), allowing for varying dependence strength and structure as well as changes in the marginal distributions. Combined changes with increase in the dependence and marginals exacerbate the predicted compound flood potential. The comprehensive analysis presented here provides new insights into how and where compound flooding potential has changed with time, demonstrates associated links with large-scale climate indices, and highlights the effects of changes in the dependence and marginals in a multivariate statistical framework. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ahmed A. Nasr Thomas Wahl Md Mamunur Rashid Robert A. Jane Paula Camus Ivan D. Haigh |
author_facet |
Ahmed A. Nasr Thomas Wahl Md Mamunur Rashid Robert A. Jane Paula Camus Ivan D. Haigh |
author_sort |
Ahmed A. Nasr |
title |
Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
title_short |
Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
title_full |
Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
title_fullStr |
Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous United States coastline |
title_sort |
temporal changes in dependence between compound coastal and inland flooding drivers around the contiguous united states coastline |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 https://doaj.org/article/0c13dca043c340e985cff8313a428054 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 41, Iss , Pp 100594- (2023) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000476 https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 https://doaj.org/article/0c13dca043c340e985cff8313a428054 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100594 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
41 |
container_start_page |
100594 |
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1778521704716304384 |