Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning.
BACKGROUND:Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperatu...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0bf96210d988443d820029446db12624 2023-05-15T15:16:18+02:00 Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. Jian Cheng Hilary Bambrick Laith Yakob Gregor Devine Francesca D Frentiu Do Thi Thanh Toan Pham Quang Thai Zhiwei Xu Wenbiao Hu 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/article/0bf96210d988443d820029446db12624 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/article/0bf96210d988443d820029446db12624 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 1, p e0007997 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 2022-12-31T07:48:36Z BACKGROUND:Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperature-dengue associations during different dengue outbreak periods, estimate the dengue cases attributable to temperature, and ascertain if there was an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Dengue outbreaks were assigned to one of three categories (small, medium and large) based on the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of distribution of weekly dengue cases during 2008-2016. Using a generalised linear regression model with a negative binomial link that controlled for temporal trends, temperature variation, rainfall and population size over time, we examined and compared associations between weekly average temperature and weekly dengue incidence for different outbreak categories. The same model using weeks with or without heatwaves as binary variables was applied to examine the potential effects of extreme heatwaves, defined as seven or more days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of daily temperature distribution during the study period. This study included 55,801 dengue cases, with an average of 119 (range: 0 to 1454) cases per week. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and dengue risk was non-linear and differed with dengue category. After considering the delayed effects of temperature (one week lag), we estimated that 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks were attributable to temperature. We found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks (around 14 weeks later) than small and medium outbreaks (4 to 9 weeks later). Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks (i.e., small, moderate and large outbreaks ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 1 e0007997 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Jian Cheng Hilary Bambrick Laith Yakob Gregor Devine Francesca D Frentiu Do Thi Thanh Toan Pham Quang Thai Zhiwei Xu Wenbiao Hu Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperature-dengue associations during different dengue outbreak periods, estimate the dengue cases attributable to temperature, and ascertain if there was an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Dengue outbreaks were assigned to one of three categories (small, medium and large) based on the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of distribution of weekly dengue cases during 2008-2016. Using a generalised linear regression model with a negative binomial link that controlled for temporal trends, temperature variation, rainfall and population size over time, we examined and compared associations between weekly average temperature and weekly dengue incidence for different outbreak categories. The same model using weeks with or without heatwaves as binary variables was applied to examine the potential effects of extreme heatwaves, defined as seven or more days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of daily temperature distribution during the study period. This study included 55,801 dengue cases, with an average of 119 (range: 0 to 1454) cases per week. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and dengue risk was non-linear and differed with dengue category. After considering the delayed effects of temperature (one week lag), we estimated that 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks were attributable to temperature. We found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks (around 14 weeks later) than small and medium outbreaks (4 to 9 weeks later). Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks (i.e., small, moderate and large outbreaks ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jian Cheng Hilary Bambrick Laith Yakob Gregor Devine Francesca D Frentiu Do Thi Thanh Toan Pham Quang Thai Zhiwei Xu Wenbiao Hu |
author_facet |
Jian Cheng Hilary Bambrick Laith Yakob Gregor Devine Francesca D Frentiu Do Thi Thanh Toan Pham Quang Thai Zhiwei Xu Wenbiao Hu |
author_sort |
Jian Cheng |
title |
Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
title_short |
Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
title_full |
Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
title_fullStr |
Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. |
title_sort |
heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in hanoi, vietnam: new evidence on early warning. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/article/0bf96210d988443d820029446db12624 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 1, p e0007997 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 https://doaj.org/article/0bf96210d988443d820029446db12624 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
e0007997 |
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1766346598573408256 |