Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models

• Published in: Biogeosciences
• Main Authors: J. Terhaar, T. L. Frölicher, F. Joos
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2022
• Subjects: Ecology; QH540-549.5; Life; QH501-531; Geology; QE1-996.5; Southern Ocean; Ocean acidification
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022; https://doaj.org/article/0ba0c320af094ef6a8221055b894ca93

The ocean slows global warming by currently taking up around one-quarter of all human-made CO 2 emissions. However, estimates of the ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake vary across various observation-based and model-based approaches. Here, we show that the global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink simulated by Earth system models can be constrained by two physical parameters, the present-day sea surface salinity in the subtropical–polar frontal zone in the Southern Ocean and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and one biogeochemical parameter, the Revelle factor of the global surface ocean. The Revelle factor quantifies the chemical capacity of seawater to take up carbon for a given increase in atmospheric CO 2 . By exploiting this three-dimensional emergent constraint with observations, we provide a new model- and observation-based estimate of the past, present, and future global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink and show that the ocean carbon sink is 9 %–11 % larger than previously estimated. Furthermore, the constraint reduces uncertainties of the past and present global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink by 42 %–59 % and the future sink by 32 %–62 % depending on the scenario, allowing for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and better-targeted climate and ocean policies. Our constrained results are in good agreement with the anthropogenic carbon air–sea flux estimates over the last three decades based on observations of the CO 2 partial pressure at the ocean surface in the Global Carbon Budget 2021, and they suggest that existing hindcast ocean-only model simulations underestimate the global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink. The key parameters identified here for the ocean anthropogenic carbon sink should be quantified when presenting simulated ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake as in the Global Carbon Budget and be used to adjust these simulated estimates if necessary. The larger ocean carbon sink results in enhanced ocean acidification over the 21st century, which further ...