A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States
Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties in climate change projections. Here, we apply the storyline approach to 21st century projections of s...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0b9a498dcf9446119df4b2ced4ca7128 2023-09-05T13:17:17+02:00 A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States Jose M Garrido-Perez Carlos Ordóñez David Barriopedro Ricardo García-Herrera Jordan L Schnell Daniel E Horton 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 https://doaj.org/article/0b9a498dcf9446119df4b2ced4ca7128 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/0b9a498dcf9446119df4b2ced4ca7128 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 1, p 014026 (2021) regional climate change extratropics meteorology CMIP6 climate models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 2023-08-13T00:36:45Z Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties in climate change projections. Here, we apply the storyline approach to 21st century projections of summer air stagnation over Europe and the United States. We use a Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble to generate stagnation storylines based on the forced response of three remote drivers of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric circulation: North Atlantic warming, North Pacific warming, and tropical versus Arctic warming. Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), models consistently project increases in stagnation over Europe and the U.S., but the magnitude and spatial distribution of changes vary substantially across CMIP6 ensemble members, suggesting that future projections are not well-constrained when using the ensemble mean alone. We find that the diversity of projected stagnation changes depends on the forced response of remote drivers in individual models. This is especially true in Europe, where differences of ∼2 summer stagnant days per degree of global warming are found amongst the different storyline combinations. For example, the greatest projected increase in stagnation for most European regions leads to the smallest increase in stagnation for southwestern Europe; i.e. limited North Atlantic warming combined with near-equitable tropical and Arctic warming. In the U.S., only the atmosphere over the northern Rocky Mountain states demonstrates comparable stagnation projection uncertainty, due to opposite influences of remote drivers on the meteorological conditions that lead to stagnation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 17 1 014026 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
regional climate change extratropics meteorology CMIP6 climate models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
regional climate change extratropics meteorology CMIP6 climate models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Jose M Garrido-Perez Carlos Ordóñez David Barriopedro Ricardo García-Herrera Jordan L Schnell Daniel E Horton A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
topic_facet |
regional climate change extratropics meteorology CMIP6 climate models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties in climate change projections. Here, we apply the storyline approach to 21st century projections of summer air stagnation over Europe and the United States. We use a Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble to generate stagnation storylines based on the forced response of three remote drivers of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude atmospheric circulation: North Atlantic warming, North Pacific warming, and tropical versus Arctic warming. Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), models consistently project increases in stagnation over Europe and the U.S., but the magnitude and spatial distribution of changes vary substantially across CMIP6 ensemble members, suggesting that future projections are not well-constrained when using the ensemble mean alone. We find that the diversity of projected stagnation changes depends on the forced response of remote drivers in individual models. This is especially true in Europe, where differences of ∼2 summer stagnant days per degree of global warming are found amongst the different storyline combinations. For example, the greatest projected increase in stagnation for most European regions leads to the smallest increase in stagnation for southwestern Europe; i.e. limited North Atlantic warming combined with near-equitable tropical and Arctic warming. In the U.S., only the atmosphere over the northern Rocky Mountain states demonstrates comparable stagnation projection uncertainty, due to opposite influences of remote drivers on the meteorological conditions that lead to stagnation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jose M Garrido-Perez Carlos Ordóñez David Barriopedro Ricardo García-Herrera Jordan L Schnell Daniel E Horton |
author_facet |
Jose M Garrido-Perez Carlos Ordóñez David Barriopedro Ricardo García-Herrera Jordan L Schnell Daniel E Horton |
author_sort |
Jose M Garrido-Perez |
title |
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
title_short |
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
title_full |
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
title_fullStr |
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
title_full_unstemmed |
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States |
title_sort |
storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in europe and the united states |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 https://doaj.org/article/0b9a498dcf9446119df4b2ced4ca7128 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 1, p 014026 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/0b9a498dcf9446119df4b2ced4ca7128 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014026 |
_version_ |
1776198517930328064 |