Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clea...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:09a84b6e7c2e48ceac6b5ab4618734c7 2023-05-15T13:41:00+02:00 Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea Tosca eBallerini Giacomo eTavecchia Francesco ePezzo Stephanie eJenouvrier Silvia eOlmastroni 2015-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 https://doaj.org/article/09a84b6e7c2e48ceac6b5ab4618734c7 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-701X 2296-701X doi:10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 https://doaj.org/article/09a84b6e7c2e48ceac6b5ab4618734c7 Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 3 (2015) Climate Change Population Growth seabirds metapopulation dynamics environmental stochasticity Matrix population model Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 2022-12-31T15:03:12Z Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ross Sea Edmonson Point ENVELOPE(165.133,165.133,-74.333,-74.333) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Change Population Growth seabirds metapopulation dynamics environmental stochasticity Matrix population model Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate Change Population Growth seabirds metapopulation dynamics environmental stochasticity Matrix population model Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 Tosca eBallerini Giacomo eTavecchia Francesco ePezzo Stephanie eJenouvrier Silvia eOlmastroni Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
topic_facet |
Climate Change Population Growth seabirds metapopulation dynamics environmental stochasticity Matrix population model Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tosca eBallerini Giacomo eTavecchia Francesco ePezzo Stephanie eJenouvrier Silvia eOlmastroni |
author_facet |
Tosca eBallerini Giacomo eTavecchia Francesco ePezzo Stephanie eJenouvrier Silvia eOlmastroni |
author_sort |
Tosca eBallerini |
title |
Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
title_short |
Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
title_full |
Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea |
title_sort |
predicting responses of the adélie penguin population of edmonson point to future sea ice changes in the ross sea |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 https://doaj.org/article/09a84b6e7c2e48ceac6b5ab4618734c7 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(165.133,165.133,-74.333,-74.333) |
geographic |
Ross Sea Edmonson Point |
geographic_facet |
Ross Sea Edmonson Point |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 3 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-701X 2296-701X doi:10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 https://doaj.org/article/09a84b6e7c2e48ceac6b5ab4618734c7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2015.00008 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
3 |
_version_ |
1766144214636167168 |