Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study.
Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylob...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:08b7382f7b6e47bfa14250f130a1317b 2023-05-15T15:16:12+02:00 Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. Amanda C Sapp Mirna P Amaya Arie H Havelaar Gabriela F Nane 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/article/08b7382f7b6e47bfa14250f130a1317b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/article/08b7382f7b6e47bfa14250f130a1317b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0010663 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 2022-12-30T21:03:58Z Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Shiga-toxin producing E. coli, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Cryptosporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) in three African countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Rwanda) to support risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis in three projects aimed at increasing safety of beef, dairy, poultry meat and vegetables in these countries. Methods We used the same methodology as the World Health Organization, i.e., Structured Expert Judgment according to Cooke's Classical Model, using three different panels for the three countries. Experts were interviewed remotely and completed calibration questions during the interview without access to any resources. They then completed target questions after the interview, using resources as considered necessary. Expert data were validated using two objective measures, calibration score or statistical accuracy, and information score. Performance-based weights were derived from the two measures to aggregate experts' distributions into a so-called decision maker. The analysis was made using Excalibur software, and resulting distributions were normalized using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Individual experts' uncertainty assessments resulted in modest statistical accuracy and high information scores, suggesting overconfident assessments. Nevertheless, the optimized item-weighted decision maker was statistically accurate and informative. While there is no evidence that animal pathogenic ETEC strains are infectious to humans, a sizeable proportion of ETEC illness was attributed to animal source foods as experts considered contamination of food products by infected food handlers can occur at any step in the food chain. For ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 9 e0010663 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Amanda C Sapp Mirna P Amaya Arie H Havelaar Gabriela F Nane Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Shiga-toxin producing E. coli, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Cryptosporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) in three African countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Rwanda) to support risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis in three projects aimed at increasing safety of beef, dairy, poultry meat and vegetables in these countries. Methods We used the same methodology as the World Health Organization, i.e., Structured Expert Judgment according to Cooke's Classical Model, using three different panels for the three countries. Experts were interviewed remotely and completed calibration questions during the interview without access to any resources. They then completed target questions after the interview, using resources as considered necessary. Expert data were validated using two objective measures, calibration score or statistical accuracy, and information score. Performance-based weights were derived from the two measures to aggregate experts' distributions into a so-called decision maker. The analysis was made using Excalibur software, and resulting distributions were normalized using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Individual experts' uncertainty assessments resulted in modest statistical accuracy and high information scores, suggesting overconfident assessments. Nevertheless, the optimized item-weighted decision maker was statistically accurate and informative. While there is no evidence that animal pathogenic ETEC strains are infectious to humans, a sizeable proportion of ETEC illness was attributed to animal source foods as experts considered contamination of food products by infected food handlers can occur at any step in the food chain. For ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Amanda C Sapp Mirna P Amaya Arie H Havelaar Gabriela F Nane |
author_facet |
Amanda C Sapp Mirna P Amaya Arie H Havelaar Gabriela F Nane |
author_sort |
Amanda C Sapp |
title |
Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
title_short |
Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
title_full |
Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
title_fullStr |
Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three African countries: Conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
title_sort |
attribution of country level foodborne disease to food group and food types in three african countries: conclusions from a structured expert judgment study. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/article/08b7382f7b6e47bfa14250f130a1317b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e0010663 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 https://doaj.org/article/08b7382f7b6e47bfa14250f130a1317b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010663 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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16 |
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9 |
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e0010663 |
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