The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou.
Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, ba...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:086e065150514b4d91dd46e8bdab5824 2023-05-15T15:16:10+02:00 The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Robert C Spear John M Marshall Zhicong Yang Peng Gong 2017-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 https://doaj.org/article/086e065150514b4d91dd46e8bdab5824 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5507464?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 https://doaj.org/article/086e065150514b4d91dd46e8bdab5824 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 6, p e0005701 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 2022-12-31T01:09:27Z Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, based on a deterministic model, concluded that the early timing of the first imported case that triggered local transmission and the excessive rainfall thereafter were the most important determinants of the large final epidemic size in 2014. However, the deterministic model did not allow us to explore the driving force of the early local transmission. Here, we expand the model to include stochastic elements and calculate the successful invasion rate of cases that entered Guangzhou at different times under different climate and intervention scenarios. The conclusion is that the higher number of imported cases in May and June was responsible for the early outbreak instead of climate. Although the excessive rainfall in 2014 did increase the success rate, this effect was offset by the low initial water level caused by interventions in late 2013. The success rate is strongly dependent on mosquito abundance during the recovery period of the imported case, since the first step of a successful invasion is infecting at least one local mosquito. The average final epidemic size of successful invasion decreases exponentially with introduction time, which means if an imported case in early summer initiates the infection process, the final number infected can be extremely large. Therefore, dengue outbreaks occurring in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam in early summer merit greater attention, since the travel volumes between Guangzhou and these countries are large. As the climate changes, destroying mosquito breeding sites in Guangzhou can mitigate the detrimental effects of the probable increase in rainfall in spring and summer. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 6 e0005701 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Robert C Spear John M Marshall Zhicong Yang Peng Gong The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, based on a deterministic model, concluded that the early timing of the first imported case that triggered local transmission and the excessive rainfall thereafter were the most important determinants of the large final epidemic size in 2014. However, the deterministic model did not allow us to explore the driving force of the early local transmission. Here, we expand the model to include stochastic elements and calculate the successful invasion rate of cases that entered Guangzhou at different times under different climate and intervention scenarios. The conclusion is that the higher number of imported cases in May and June was responsible for the early outbreak instead of climate. Although the excessive rainfall in 2014 did increase the success rate, this effect was offset by the low initial water level caused by interventions in late 2013. The success rate is strongly dependent on mosquito abundance during the recovery period of the imported case, since the first step of a successful invasion is infecting at least one local mosquito. The average final epidemic size of successful invasion decreases exponentially with introduction time, which means if an imported case in early summer initiates the infection process, the final number infected can be extremely large. Therefore, dengue outbreaks occurring in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam in early summer merit greater attention, since the travel volumes between Guangzhou and these countries are large. As the climate changes, destroying mosquito breeding sites in Guangzhou can mitigate the detrimental effects of the probable increase in rainfall in spring and summer. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Robert C Spear John M Marshall Zhicong Yang Peng Gong |
author_facet |
Qu Cheng Qinlong Jing Robert C Spear John M Marshall Zhicong Yang Peng Gong |
author_sort |
Qu Cheng |
title |
The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
title_short |
The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
title_full |
The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
title_fullStr |
The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou. |
title_sort |
interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in guangzhou. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 https://doaj.org/article/086e065150514b4d91dd46e8bdab5824 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 6, p e0005701 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5507464?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 https://doaj.org/article/086e065150514b4d91dd46e8bdab5824 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0005701 |
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