Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe
Central European weather and climate are closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a relevant index for quantifying internal climate variability on multi-annual timescales. It remains unclear, however, how large-scale circulation variab...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:082d579877784be890ec945d49ed4c5c 2023-05-15T17:32:07+02:00 Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe A. Böhnisch R. Ludwig M. Leduc 2020-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 https://doaj.org/article/082d579877784be890ec945d49ed4c5c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/617/2020/esd-11-617-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/082d579877784be890ec945d49ed4c5c Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 617-640 (2020) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 2022-12-31T12:22:15Z Central European weather and climate are closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a relevant index for quantifying internal climate variability on multi-annual timescales. It remains unclear, however, how large-scale circulation variability affects local climate characteristics when downscaled using a regional climate model. In this study, 50 members of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (LE) of a nested regional climate model are analyzed for a NAO–climate relationship. The overall goal of the study is to assess whether the range of NAO internal variability is represented consistently between the driving global climate model (GCM; the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 – CanESM2) and the nested regional climate model (RCM; the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 – CRCM5). Responses of mean surface air temperature and total precipitation to changes in the NAO index value are examined in a central European domain in both CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE via Pearson correlation coefficients and the change per unit index change for historical (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) winters. Results show that statistically robust NAO patterns are found in the CanESM2-LE under current forcing conditions. NAO flow pattern reproductions in the CanESM2-LE trigger responses in the high-resolution CRCM5-LE that are comparable to reanalysis data. NAO–response relationships weaken in the future period, but their inter-member spread shows no significant change. The results stress the value of single-model ensembles for the evaluation of internal variability by pointing out the large differences of NAO–response relationships among individual members. They also strengthen the validity of the nested ensemble for further impact modeling using RCM data only, since important large-scale teleconnections present in the driving data propagate properly to the fine-scale dynamics in the RCM. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 11 3 617 640 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 A. Böhnisch R. Ludwig M. Leduc Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Central European weather and climate are closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a relevant index for quantifying internal climate variability on multi-annual timescales. It remains unclear, however, how large-scale circulation variability affects local climate characteristics when downscaled using a regional climate model. In this study, 50 members of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (LE) of a nested regional climate model are analyzed for a NAO–climate relationship. The overall goal of the study is to assess whether the range of NAO internal variability is represented consistently between the driving global climate model (GCM; the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 – CanESM2) and the nested regional climate model (RCM; the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 – CRCM5). Responses of mean surface air temperature and total precipitation to changes in the NAO index value are examined in a central European domain in both CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE via Pearson correlation coefficients and the change per unit index change for historical (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) winters. Results show that statistically robust NAO patterns are found in the CanESM2-LE under current forcing conditions. NAO flow pattern reproductions in the CanESM2-LE trigger responses in the high-resolution CRCM5-LE that are comparable to reanalysis data. NAO–response relationships weaken in the future period, but their inter-member spread shows no significant change. The results stress the value of single-model ensembles for the evaluation of internal variability by pointing out the large differences of NAO–response relationships among individual members. They also strengthen the validity of the nested ensemble for further impact modeling using RCM data only, since important large-scale teleconnections present in the driving data propagate properly to the fine-scale dynamics in the RCM. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Böhnisch R. Ludwig M. Leduc |
author_facet |
A. Böhnisch R. Ludwig M. Leduc |
author_sort |
A. Böhnisch |
title |
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
title_short |
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
title_full |
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
title_fullStr |
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe |
title_sort |
using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the north atlantic oscillation and its climatic implications for central europe |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 https://doaj.org/article/082d579877784be890ec945d49ed4c5c |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 617-640 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/617/2020/esd-11-617-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/082d579877784be890ec945d49ed4c5c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
617 |
op_container_end_page |
640 |
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1766130065949589504 |