Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues
Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (S...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:08230074b1cd414aaa50b2f557cbaac3 2023-09-05T13:21:21+02:00 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Matthew B Menary Juliette Mignot Jon Robson 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://doaj.org/article/08230074b1cd414aaa50b2f557cbaac3 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/08230074b1cd414aaa50b2f557cbaac3 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 6, p 064090 (2021) AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 2023-08-13T00:37:11Z Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064090 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Matthew B Menary Juliette Mignot Jon Robson Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
topic_facet |
AMOC decadal prediction analogue CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Matthew B Menary Juliette Mignot Jon Robson |
author_facet |
Matthew B Menary Juliette Mignot Jon Robson |
author_sort |
Matthew B Menary |
title |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_short |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_fullStr |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues |
title_sort |
skilful decadal predictions of subpolar north atlantic ssts using cmip model-analogues |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://doaj.org/article/08230074b1cd414aaa50b2f557cbaac3 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 6, p 064090 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/08230074b1cd414aaa50b2f557cbaac3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064090 |
_version_ |
1776201959953399808 |