Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019)
This paper describes the long-term grid-point rainfall trends in the context of climate change, recent regionalised rainfall decline and drought events for mainland Portugal, which is teleconnected, in most cases, to the trends of mathematical descriptions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dur...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:07b87cc51009451e843824362fc071e8 2023-05-15T17:32:03+02:00 Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) Luis Angel Espinosa Maria Manuela Portela 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121863 https://doaj.org/article/07b87cc51009451e843824362fc071e8 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/12/1863 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w14121863 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/07b87cc51009451e843824362fc071e8 Water, Vol 14, Iss 1863, p 1863 (2022) climate change rainfall trends teleconnection regionalised drought SPI Portugal Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121863 2022-12-30T23:00:15Z This paper describes the long-term grid-point rainfall trends in the context of climate change, recent regionalised rainfall decline and drought events for mainland Portugal, which is teleconnected, in most cases, to the trends of mathematical descriptions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the century from October 1919 to September 2019. Grid-point rainfall dataset (1919–2019, from 126 centroids in a regular mesh over the country) have been constructed from high-quality ground-based data and as such, it provides a reliable source for the analysis of rainfall trends at different timescales: October–December, January–March, December–March, and the hydrological year. The Mann–Kendall (MK) coupled with Sen’s slope estimator test are applied to quantify the trends. The Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) analysis is implemented to obtain the fluctuation of the progressive trends along the studied 100-year period. Because of their pivotal role in linking and synchronising climate variability, teleconnections to the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored to explain the rainfall trends over the Portuguese continuum. The results provide a solid basis to explain the climate change effects on the Portuguese rainfall based on significant associations with strong negative correlations between changes in rainfall and in NAO indices. These strong opposing correlations are displayed in most of the winter seasons and in the year. After the late 1960s, a generalised rainfall decrease emerges against a background of significant upward trends of the NAO; such coupled behaviour has persisted for decades. Regionalised droughts at three identified climatic regions, based on factor analysis and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), are also discussed, concluding that the frequency of severe droughts may increase again, accompanied by a stronger influence of the recently more positive and unusual winter season and annual NAO indices. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Water 14 12 1863 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change rainfall trends teleconnection regionalised drought SPI Portugal Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
climate change rainfall trends teleconnection regionalised drought SPI Portugal Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Luis Angel Espinosa Maria Manuela Portela Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
topic_facet |
climate change rainfall trends teleconnection regionalised drought SPI Portugal Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
This paper describes the long-term grid-point rainfall trends in the context of climate change, recent regionalised rainfall decline and drought events for mainland Portugal, which is teleconnected, in most cases, to the trends of mathematical descriptions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the century from October 1919 to September 2019. Grid-point rainfall dataset (1919–2019, from 126 centroids in a regular mesh over the country) have been constructed from high-quality ground-based data and as such, it provides a reliable source for the analysis of rainfall trends at different timescales: October–December, January–March, December–March, and the hydrological year. The Mann–Kendall (MK) coupled with Sen’s slope estimator test are applied to quantify the trends. The Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) analysis is implemented to obtain the fluctuation of the progressive trends along the studied 100-year period. Because of their pivotal role in linking and synchronising climate variability, teleconnections to the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored to explain the rainfall trends over the Portuguese continuum. The results provide a solid basis to explain the climate change effects on the Portuguese rainfall based on significant associations with strong negative correlations between changes in rainfall and in NAO indices. These strong opposing correlations are displayed in most of the winter seasons and in the year. After the late 1960s, a generalised rainfall decrease emerges against a background of significant upward trends of the NAO; such coupled behaviour has persisted for decades. Regionalised droughts at three identified climatic regions, based on factor analysis and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), are also discussed, concluding that the frequency of severe droughts may increase again, accompanied by a stronger influence of the recently more positive and unusual winter season and annual NAO indices. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Luis Angel Espinosa Maria Manuela Portela |
author_facet |
Luis Angel Espinosa Maria Manuela Portela |
author_sort |
Luis Angel Espinosa |
title |
Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
title_short |
Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
title_full |
Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
title_fullStr |
Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019) |
title_sort |
grid-point rainfall trends, teleconnection patterns, and regionalised droughts in portugal (1919–2019) |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121863 https://doaj.org/article/07b87cc51009451e843824362fc071e8 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall |
geographic_facet |
Kendall |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Water, Vol 14, Iss 1863, p 1863 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/12/1863 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w14121863 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/07b87cc51009451e843824362fc071e8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121863 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1863 |
_version_ |
1766129989976064000 |