Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021
The high-resolution permafrost distribution maps have a closer relationship with engineering applications in cold regions because they are more relative to the real situation compared with the traditional permafrost zoning mapping. A particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to obtain the index...
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2023
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:07b4cb8c16084e6b995eae64c6bd0b57 2023-11-12T04:24:19+01:00 Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 Chengcheng Zhang Wei Shan Shuai Liu Ying Guo Lisha Qiu 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914610 https://doaj.org/article/07b4cb8c16084e6b995eae64c6bd0b57 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/19/14610 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su151914610 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/07b4cb8c16084e6b995eae64c6bd0b57 Sustainability, Vol 15, Iss 14610, p 14610 (2023) MODIS land surface temperature surface frost number permafrost temperature downscaling 30 m spatial resolution Northeast China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914610 2023-10-15T00:35:10Z The high-resolution permafrost distribution maps have a closer relationship with engineering applications in cold regions because they are more relative to the real situation compared with the traditional permafrost zoning mapping. A particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to obtain the index η with 30 m resolution and to characterize the distribution probability of permafrost at the field scale. The index consists of five environmental variables: slope position, slope, deviation from mean elevation, topographic diversity, and soil bulk density. The downscaling process of the surface frost number from a resolution of 1000 m to 30 m is achieved by using the spatial weight decomposition method and index η. We established the regression statistical relationship between the surface frost number after downscaling and the temperature at the freezing layer that is below the permafrost active layer base. We simulated permafrost temperature distribution maps with 30 m resolution in the four periods of 2003–2007, 2008–2012, 2013–2017, and 2018–2021, and the permafrost area is, respectively, 28.35 × 10 4 km 2 , 35.14 × 10 4 km 2 , 28.96 × 10 4 km 2 , and 25.21 × 10 4 km 2 . The proportion of extremely stable permafrost (<−5.0 °C), stable permafrost (−3.0~−5.0 °C), sub-stable permafrost (−1.5~−3.0 °C), transitional permafrost (−0.5~−1.5 °C), and unstable permafrost (0~−0.5 °C) is 0.50–1.27%, 6.77–12.45%, 29.08–33.94%, 34.52–39.50%, and 19.87–26.79%, respectively, with sub-stable, transitional, and unstable permafrost mainly distributed. Direct and indirect verification shows that the permafrost temperature distribution maps after downscaling still have high reliability, with 83.2% of the residual controlled within the range of ±1 °C and the consistency ranges from 83.17% to 96.47%, with the identification of permafrost sections in the highway engineering geological investigation reports of six highway projects. The maps are of fundamental importance for engineering planning and design, ecosystem management, and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Sustainability 15 19 14610 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
MODIS land surface temperature surface frost number permafrost temperature downscaling 30 m spatial resolution Northeast China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
MODIS land surface temperature surface frost number permafrost temperature downscaling 30 m spatial resolution Northeast China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Chengcheng Zhang Wei Shan Shuai Liu Ying Guo Lisha Qiu Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
topic_facet |
MODIS land surface temperature surface frost number permafrost temperature downscaling 30 m spatial resolution Northeast China Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The high-resolution permafrost distribution maps have a closer relationship with engineering applications in cold regions because they are more relative to the real situation compared with the traditional permafrost zoning mapping. A particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to obtain the index η with 30 m resolution and to characterize the distribution probability of permafrost at the field scale. The index consists of five environmental variables: slope position, slope, deviation from mean elevation, topographic diversity, and soil bulk density. The downscaling process of the surface frost number from a resolution of 1000 m to 30 m is achieved by using the spatial weight decomposition method and index η. We established the regression statistical relationship between the surface frost number after downscaling and the temperature at the freezing layer that is below the permafrost active layer base. We simulated permafrost temperature distribution maps with 30 m resolution in the four periods of 2003–2007, 2008–2012, 2013–2017, and 2018–2021, and the permafrost area is, respectively, 28.35 × 10 4 km 2 , 35.14 × 10 4 km 2 , 28.96 × 10 4 km 2 , and 25.21 × 10 4 km 2 . The proportion of extremely stable permafrost (<−5.0 °C), stable permafrost (−3.0~−5.0 °C), sub-stable permafrost (−1.5~−3.0 °C), transitional permafrost (−0.5~−1.5 °C), and unstable permafrost (0~−0.5 °C) is 0.50–1.27%, 6.77–12.45%, 29.08–33.94%, 34.52–39.50%, and 19.87–26.79%, respectively, with sub-stable, transitional, and unstable permafrost mainly distributed. Direct and indirect verification shows that the permafrost temperature distribution maps after downscaling still have high reliability, with 83.2% of the residual controlled within the range of ±1 °C and the consistency ranges from 83.17% to 96.47%, with the identification of permafrost sections in the highway engineering geological investigation reports of six highway projects. The maps are of fundamental importance for engineering planning and design, ecosystem management, and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chengcheng Zhang Wei Shan Shuai Liu Ying Guo Lisha Qiu |
author_facet |
Chengcheng Zhang Wei Shan Shuai Liu Ying Guo Lisha Qiu |
author_sort |
Chengcheng Zhang |
title |
Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
title_short |
Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
title_full |
Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
title_fullStr |
Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Variation of 30 m Resolution Permafrost in Northeast China from 2003 to 2021 |
title_sort |
simulation of spatiotemporal distribution and variation of 30 m resolution permafrost in northeast china from 2003 to 2021 |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914610 https://doaj.org/article/07b4cb8c16084e6b995eae64c6bd0b57 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Sustainability, Vol 15, Iss 14610, p 14610 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/19/14610 https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050 doi:10.3390/su151914610 2071-1050 https://doaj.org/article/07b4cb8c16084e6b995eae64c6bd0b57 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914610 |
container_title |
Sustainability |
container_volume |
15 |
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19 |
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14610 |
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1782338816007208960 |