Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord
Macroalgae are the main primary producers in polar coastal regions and of major importance for the associated heterotrophic communities. On King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) several fjords undergo rapid glacial retreat in response to increasing atmospheric temperatur...
Published in: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2019
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 https://doaj.org/article/0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 2023-05-15T13:46:43+02:00 Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord Kerstin Jerosch Frauke K. Scharf Dolores Deregibus Gabriela L. Campana Katharina Zacher Hendrik Pehlke Ulrike Falk H. Christian Hass Maria L. Quartino Doris Abele 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 https://doaj.org/article/0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-701X 2296-701X doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 https://doaj.org/article/0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 7 (2019) seaweed distribution modeling bioclimatic ecosystem change distribution shift macroalgae summer production South Shetland Islands Antarctica Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 2022-12-31T11:52:57Z Macroalgae are the main primary producers in polar coastal regions and of major importance for the associated heterotrophic communities. On King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) several fjords undergo rapid glacial retreat in response to increasing atmospheric temperatures. Hence, extended meltwater plumes laden with suspended particulate matter (SPM) are generated that hamper primary production during the austral summer season. We used ensemble modeling to approximate changes in the benthic productivity of an Antarctic fjord as a function of SPM discharge. A set of environmental variables was statistically selected and an ensemble of correlative species-distribution models was devised to project scattered georeferenced observation data to a spatial distribution of macroalgae for a “time of measurement” (“tom”) scenario (2008–2015). The model achieved statistically reliable validation results (true scale statistics 0.833, relative operating characteristics 0.975) and explained more than 60% of the modeled macroalgae distribution with the variables “hard substrate” and “SPM.” This “tom” scenario depicts a macroalgae cover of ~8% (63 ha) for the total study area (8 km2) and a summer production of ~350 t dry weight. Assuming a linear increase of meltwater SPM load over time, two past (1991 and 1998), and two future (2019 and 2026) simulations with varying SPM intensities were applied. The simulation using only 50% of the “tom” scenario SPM amount (simulating 1991) resulted in increased macroalgal distribution (143 ha) and a higher summer production (792 t) compared to the “tom” status and could be validated using historical data. Forecasting the year 2019 from the “tom” status, an increase of 25% SPM results in a predicted reduction of macroalgae summer production to ~60% (141 t). We present a first quantitative model for changing fjordic macroalgal production under continued melt conditions at WAP. As meltwater influenced habitats are extending under climate change conditions, our ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Isla 25 de Mayo King George Island South Shetland Islands Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral King George Island South Shetland Islands 25 de Mayo ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-62.083,-62.083) isla 25 de Mayo ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-62.083,-62.083) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
seaweed distribution modeling bioclimatic ecosystem change distribution shift macroalgae summer production South Shetland Islands Antarctica Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
seaweed distribution modeling bioclimatic ecosystem change distribution shift macroalgae summer production South Shetland Islands Antarctica Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 Kerstin Jerosch Frauke K. Scharf Dolores Deregibus Gabriela L. Campana Katharina Zacher Hendrik Pehlke Ulrike Falk H. Christian Hass Maria L. Quartino Doris Abele Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
topic_facet |
seaweed distribution modeling bioclimatic ecosystem change distribution shift macroalgae summer production South Shetland Islands Antarctica Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Macroalgae are the main primary producers in polar coastal regions and of major importance for the associated heterotrophic communities. On King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) several fjords undergo rapid glacial retreat in response to increasing atmospheric temperatures. Hence, extended meltwater plumes laden with suspended particulate matter (SPM) are generated that hamper primary production during the austral summer season. We used ensemble modeling to approximate changes in the benthic productivity of an Antarctic fjord as a function of SPM discharge. A set of environmental variables was statistically selected and an ensemble of correlative species-distribution models was devised to project scattered georeferenced observation data to a spatial distribution of macroalgae for a “time of measurement” (“tom”) scenario (2008–2015). The model achieved statistically reliable validation results (true scale statistics 0.833, relative operating characteristics 0.975) and explained more than 60% of the modeled macroalgae distribution with the variables “hard substrate” and “SPM.” This “tom” scenario depicts a macroalgae cover of ~8% (63 ha) for the total study area (8 km2) and a summer production of ~350 t dry weight. Assuming a linear increase of meltwater SPM load over time, two past (1991 and 1998), and two future (2019 and 2026) simulations with varying SPM intensities were applied. The simulation using only 50% of the “tom” scenario SPM amount (simulating 1991) resulted in increased macroalgal distribution (143 ha) and a higher summer production (792 t) compared to the “tom” status and could be validated using historical data. Forecasting the year 2019 from the “tom” status, an increase of 25% SPM results in a predicted reduction of macroalgae summer production to ~60% (141 t). We present a first quantitative model for changing fjordic macroalgal production under continued melt conditions at WAP. As meltwater influenced habitats are extending under climate change conditions, our ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kerstin Jerosch Frauke K. Scharf Dolores Deregibus Gabriela L. Campana Katharina Zacher Hendrik Pehlke Ulrike Falk H. Christian Hass Maria L. Quartino Doris Abele |
author_facet |
Kerstin Jerosch Frauke K. Scharf Dolores Deregibus Gabriela L. Campana Katharina Zacher Hendrik Pehlke Ulrike Falk H. Christian Hass Maria L. Quartino Doris Abele |
author_sort |
Kerstin Jerosch |
title |
Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
title_short |
Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
title_full |
Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
title_fullStr |
Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ensemble Modeling of Antarctic Macroalgal Habitats Exposed to Glacial Melt in a Polar Fjord |
title_sort |
ensemble modeling of antarctic macroalgal habitats exposed to glacial melt in a polar fjord |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 https://doaj.org/article/0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-62.083,-62.083) ENVELOPE(-58.000,-58.000,-62.083,-62.083) |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral King George Island South Shetland Islands 25 de Mayo isla 25 de Mayo |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral King George Island South Shetland Islands 25 de Mayo isla 25 de Mayo |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Isla 25 de Mayo King George Island South Shetland Islands |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Isla 25 de Mayo King George Island South Shetland Islands |
op_source |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 7 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-701X 2296-701X doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 https://doaj.org/article/0765f26b394e42f8859e635f65a8a8f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00207 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
7 |
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1766245146484015104 |