Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble
Warming of the Arctic leads to a decrease in sea ice, and the decrease of sea ice, in turn, results in warming of the Arctic again. Several microwave sensors have provided continuously updated sea ice data for over 30 years. Many studies have been conducted to investigate the relationships between t...
Published in: | Remote Sensing |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010019 https://doaj.org/article/06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 2023-05-15T14:46:08+02:00 Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble Jiwon Kim Kwangjin Kim Jaeil Cho Yong Q. Kang Hong-Joo Yoon Yang-Won Lee 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010019 https://doaj.org/article/06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/1/19 https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292 2072-4292 doi:10.3390/rs11010019 https://doaj.org/article/06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 Remote Sensing, Vol 11, Iss 1, p 19 (2018) sea ice concentration regional climate model Bayesian model averaging deep neural network Science Q article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010019 2022-12-31T10:20:00Z Warming of the Arctic leads to a decrease in sea ice, and the decrease of sea ice, in turn, results in warming of the Arctic again. Several microwave sensors have provided continuously updated sea ice data for over 30 years. Many studies have been conducted to investigate the relationships between the satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) of the Arctic and climatic factors associated with the accelerated warming. However, linear equations using the general circulation model (GCM) data, with low spatial resolution, cannot sufficiently cope with the problem of complexity or non-linearity. Time-series techniques are effective for one-step-ahead forecasting, but are not appropriate for future prediction for about ten or twenty years because of increasing uncertainty when forecasting multiple steps ahead. This paper describes a new approach to near-future prediction of Arctic SIC by employing a deep learning method with multi-model ensemble. We used the regional climate model (RCM) data provided in higher resolution, instead of GCM. The RCM ensemble was produced by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to minimize the uncertainty which can arise from a single RCM. The accuracies of RCM variables were much improved by the BMA2 method, which took into consideration temporal and spatial variations to minimize the uncertainty of individual RCMs. A deep neural network (DNN) method was used to deal with the non-linear relationships between SIC and climate variables, and to provide a near-future prediction for the forthcoming 10 to 20 years. We adjusted the DNN model for optimized SIC prediction by adopting best-fitted layer structure, loss function, optimizer algorithm, and activation function. The accuracy was much improved when the DNN model was combined with BMA2 ensemble, showing the correlation coefficient of 0.888. This study provides a viable option for monitoring Arctic sea ice change of the near future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Remote Sensing 11 1 19 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea ice concentration regional climate model Bayesian model averaging deep neural network Science Q |
spellingShingle |
sea ice concentration regional climate model Bayesian model averaging deep neural network Science Q Jiwon Kim Kwangjin Kim Jaeil Cho Yong Q. Kang Hong-Joo Yoon Yang-Won Lee Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
topic_facet |
sea ice concentration regional climate model Bayesian model averaging deep neural network Science Q |
description |
Warming of the Arctic leads to a decrease in sea ice, and the decrease of sea ice, in turn, results in warming of the Arctic again. Several microwave sensors have provided continuously updated sea ice data for over 30 years. Many studies have been conducted to investigate the relationships between the satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) of the Arctic and climatic factors associated with the accelerated warming. However, linear equations using the general circulation model (GCM) data, with low spatial resolution, cannot sufficiently cope with the problem of complexity or non-linearity. Time-series techniques are effective for one-step-ahead forecasting, but are not appropriate for future prediction for about ten or twenty years because of increasing uncertainty when forecasting multiple steps ahead. This paper describes a new approach to near-future prediction of Arctic SIC by employing a deep learning method with multi-model ensemble. We used the regional climate model (RCM) data provided in higher resolution, instead of GCM. The RCM ensemble was produced by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to minimize the uncertainty which can arise from a single RCM. The accuracies of RCM variables were much improved by the BMA2 method, which took into consideration temporal and spatial variations to minimize the uncertainty of individual RCMs. A deep neural network (DNN) method was used to deal with the non-linear relationships between SIC and climate variables, and to provide a near-future prediction for the forthcoming 10 to 20 years. We adjusted the DNN model for optimized SIC prediction by adopting best-fitted layer structure, loss function, optimizer algorithm, and activation function. The accuracy was much improved when the DNN model was combined with BMA2 ensemble, showing the correlation coefficient of 0.888. This study provides a viable option for monitoring Arctic sea ice change of the near future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jiwon Kim Kwangjin Kim Jaeil Cho Yong Q. Kang Hong-Joo Yoon Yang-Won Lee |
author_facet |
Jiwon Kim Kwangjin Kim Jaeil Cho Yong Q. Kang Hong-Joo Yoon Yang-Won Lee |
author_sort |
Jiwon Kim |
title |
Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
title_short |
Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
title_full |
Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble |
title_sort |
satellite-based prediction of arctic sea ice concentration using a deep neural network with multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010019 https://doaj.org/article/06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Remote Sensing, Vol 11, Iss 1, p 19 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/1/19 https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292 2072-4292 doi:10.3390/rs11010019 https://doaj.org/article/06af9df263e64473b12d4b8b819ed140 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11010019 |
container_title |
Remote Sensing |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
19 |
_version_ |
1766317399091445760 |