Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis.
Background Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. Methods and findings From...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:05ea7056243e4414a0bf1792c5a6ab4a 2023-05-15T15:10:44+02:00 Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. Marcelo Cunha Federico Costa Guilherme S Ribeiro Marilia S Carvalho Renato B Reis Nivison Nery Lauren Pischel Edilane L Gouveia Andreia C Santos Adriano Queiroz Elsio A Wunder Mitermayer G Reis Peter J Diggle Albert I Ko 2022-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/article/05ea7056243e4414a0bf1792c5a6ab4a EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/article/05ea7056243e4414a0bf1792c5a6ab4a PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 4, p e0007507 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 2022-12-30T22:27:12Z Background Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. Methods and findings From March 1996-March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. Conclusions Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 4 e0007507 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Marcelo Cunha Federico Costa Guilherme S Ribeiro Marilia S Carvalho Renato B Reis Nivison Nery Lauren Pischel Edilane L Gouveia Andreia C Santos Adriano Queiroz Elsio A Wunder Mitermayer G Reis Peter J Diggle Albert I Ko Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. Methods and findings From March 1996-March 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and meteorological anomalies in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend, and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with higher than expected rainfall, lower than expected temperature and higher than expected humidity. There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall anomaly of 20 mm increased the risk of leptospirosis by 12% compared to a week following the expected seasonal pattern. Finally, over the 14-year study period, the annual incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by a factor of 2.7 (8.3 versus 3.0 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. Conclusions Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after low-level or extreme high-level rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marcelo Cunha Federico Costa Guilherme S Ribeiro Marilia S Carvalho Renato B Reis Nivison Nery Lauren Pischel Edilane L Gouveia Andreia C Santos Adriano Queiroz Elsio A Wunder Mitermayer G Reis Peter J Diggle Albert I Ko |
author_facet |
Marcelo Cunha Federico Costa Guilherme S Ribeiro Marilia S Carvalho Renato B Reis Nivison Nery Lauren Pischel Edilane L Gouveia Andreia C Santos Adriano Queiroz Elsio A Wunder Mitermayer G Reis Peter J Diggle Albert I Ko |
author_sort |
Marcelo Cunha |
title |
Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
title_short |
Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
title_full |
Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
title_fullStr |
Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
title_sort |
rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/article/05ea7056243e4414a0bf1792c5a6ab4a |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 4, p e0007507 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 https://doaj.org/article/05ea7056243e4414a0bf1792c5a6ab4a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007507 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e0007507 |
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1766341700981096448 |