Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use
Abstract Changes in climate and land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present w...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:05cd4f5c2c42443db3a94f64f9373256 2024-01-14T10:09:09+01:00 Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use L. R. Montefiore N. G. Nelson M. D. Staudinger A. Terando 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/article/05cd4f5c2c42443db3a94f64f9373256 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/article/05cd4f5c2c42443db3a94f64f9373256 Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) estuaries vulnerability climate change land‐use change water quality nutrient Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 2023-12-17T01:42:03Z Abstract Changes in climate and land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (a) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios, (b) sensitivity, and (c) adaptive capacity. The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increases are expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Strong variation in predicted estuarine nutrient loads was observed as a function of climate model projections, while projected LULC changes were more consistently associated with elevated loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio‐ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Earth's Future 11 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
estuaries vulnerability climate change land‐use change water quality nutrient Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
estuaries vulnerability climate change land‐use change water quality nutrient Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 L. R. Montefiore N. G. Nelson M. D. Staudinger A. Terando Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
topic_facet |
estuaries vulnerability climate change land‐use change water quality nutrient Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Changes in climate and land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (a) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios, (b) sensitivity, and (c) adaptive capacity. The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increases are expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Strong variation in predicted estuarine nutrient loads was observed as a function of climate model projections, while projected LULC changes were more consistently associated with elevated loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio‐ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L. R. Montefiore N. G. Nelson M. D. Staudinger A. Terando |
author_facet |
L. R. Montefiore N. G. Nelson M. D. Staudinger A. Terando |
author_sort |
L. R. Montefiore |
title |
Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
title_short |
Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
title_full |
Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
title_fullStr |
Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
title_full_unstemmed |
Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land‐Use |
title_sort |
vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous united states to water quality change under future climate and land‐use |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/article/05cd4f5c2c42443db3a94f64f9373256 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002884 https://doaj.org/article/05cd4f5c2c42443db3a94f64f9373256 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1788063621600772096 |