Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?
Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:05bbd7e66fb64931b4ea8aafd29c1844 2023-10-01T03:59:07+02:00 Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? Alison Shapcott Ian Hutton William J. Baker Tony D. Auld Catherine Laura Simmons 2012-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/biology1030736 https://doaj.org/article/05bbd7e66fb64931b4ea8aafd29c1844 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/1/3/736 https://doaj.org/toc/2079-7737 doi:10.3390/biology1030736 2079-7737 https://doaj.org/article/05bbd7e66fb64931b4ea8aafd29c1844 Biology, Vol 1, Iss 3, Pp 736-765 (2012) climate change genetic variation growth rates population growth Biology (General) QH301-705.5 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/biology1030736 2023-09-03T00:37:42Z Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus) is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m). For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species. Article in Journal/Newspaper Rattus rattus Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Biology 1 3 736 765 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change genetic variation growth rates population growth Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
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climate change genetic variation growth rates population growth Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Alison Shapcott Ian Hutton William J. Baker Tony D. Auld Catherine Laura Simmons Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
topic_facet |
climate change genetic variation growth rates population growth Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
description |
Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus) is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m). For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alison Shapcott Ian Hutton William J. Baker Tony D. Auld Catherine Laura Simmons |
author_facet |
Alison Shapcott Ian Hutton William J. Baker Tony D. Auld Catherine Laura Simmons |
author_sort |
Alison Shapcott |
title |
Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
title_short |
Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
title_full |
Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
title_fullStr |
Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? |
title_sort |
will climate change, genetic and demographic variation or rat predation pose the greatest risk for persistence of an altitudinally distributed island endemic? |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/biology1030736 https://doaj.org/article/05bbd7e66fb64931b4ea8aafd29c1844 |
genre |
Rattus rattus |
genre_facet |
Rattus rattus |
op_source |
Biology, Vol 1, Iss 3, Pp 736-765 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/1/3/736 https://doaj.org/toc/2079-7737 doi:10.3390/biology1030736 2079-7737 https://doaj.org/article/05bbd7e66fb64931b4ea8aafd29c1844 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/biology1030736 |
container_title |
Biology |
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1 |
container_issue |
3 |
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736 |
op_container_end_page |
765 |
_version_ |
1778532677864914944 |