Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic
Leptospirosis is a re-emerging zoonotic infectious disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Regional differences in the disease manifestation and the role of ecological factors, specifically in regions with a subarctic and arctic climate, remain poorly understood. We here explo...
Published in: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 https://doaj.org/article/05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df 2023-05-15T14:50:12+02:00 Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic Olga I. Zakharova Fedor I. Korennoy Ivan V. Iashin Nadezhda N. Toropova Andrey E. Gogin Denis V. Kolbasov Galina V. Surkova Svetlana M. Malkhazova Andrei A. Blokhin 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 https://doaj.org/article/05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675/full https://doaj.org/toc/2297-1769 2297-1769 doi:10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 https://doaj.org/article/05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol 8 (2021) Arctic climate change forest-based classification and regression algorithm G-rate leptospirosis livestock Veterinary medicine SF600-1100 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 2022-12-31T06:33:36Z Leptospirosis is a re-emerging zoonotic infectious disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Regional differences in the disease manifestation and the role of ecological factors, specifically in regions with a subarctic and arctic climate, remain poorly understood. We here explored environmental and socio-economic features associated with leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic during 2000–2019. Spatial analysis suggested that the locations of the majority of 808 cases were in “boreal” or “polar” climate regions, with “cropland,” “forest,” “shrubland,” or “settlements” land-cover type, with a predominance of “Polar Moist Cropland on Plain” ecosystem. The cases demonstrated seasonality, with peaks in March, June, and August, corresponding to the livestock pasturing practices. We applied the Forest-based Classification and Regression algorithm to explore the relationships between the cumulative leptospirosis incidence per unit area by municipal districts (G-rate) and a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance in explaining the observed disease distribution (R2 = 0.82, p < 0.01), with human population density, livestock units density, the proportion of crop area, and budgetary investments into agriculture per unit area being the most influential socio-economic variables. Climatic factors demonstrated a significantly weaker influence, with nearly similar contributions of mean yearly precipitation and air temperature and number of days with above-zero temperatures. Using a projected climate by 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario, we predict a climate-related rise of expected disease incidence across most of the study area, with an up to 4.4-fold increase in the G-rate. These results demonstrated the predominant influence of the population and agricultural production factors on the observed increase in leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic. These findings may contribute to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Subarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Frontiers in Veterinary Science 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change forest-based classification and regression algorithm G-rate leptospirosis livestock Veterinary medicine SF600-1100 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change forest-based classification and regression algorithm G-rate leptospirosis livestock Veterinary medicine SF600-1100 Olga I. Zakharova Fedor I. Korennoy Ivan V. Iashin Nadezhda N. Toropova Andrey E. Gogin Denis V. Kolbasov Galina V. Surkova Svetlana M. Malkhazova Andrei A. Blokhin Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change forest-based classification and regression algorithm G-rate leptospirosis livestock Veterinary medicine SF600-1100 |
description |
Leptospirosis is a re-emerging zoonotic infectious disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Regional differences in the disease manifestation and the role of ecological factors, specifically in regions with a subarctic and arctic climate, remain poorly understood. We here explored environmental and socio-economic features associated with leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic during 2000–2019. Spatial analysis suggested that the locations of the majority of 808 cases were in “boreal” or “polar” climate regions, with “cropland,” “forest,” “shrubland,” or “settlements” land-cover type, with a predominance of “Polar Moist Cropland on Plain” ecosystem. The cases demonstrated seasonality, with peaks in March, June, and August, corresponding to the livestock pasturing practices. We applied the Forest-based Classification and Regression algorithm to explore the relationships between the cumulative leptospirosis incidence per unit area by municipal districts (G-rate) and a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance in explaining the observed disease distribution (R2 = 0.82, p < 0.01), with human population density, livestock units density, the proportion of crop area, and budgetary investments into agriculture per unit area being the most influential socio-economic variables. Climatic factors demonstrated a significantly weaker influence, with nearly similar contributions of mean yearly precipitation and air temperature and number of days with above-zero temperatures. Using a projected climate by 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario, we predict a climate-related rise of expected disease incidence across most of the study area, with an up to 4.4-fold increase in the G-rate. These results demonstrated the predominant influence of the population and agricultural production factors on the observed increase in leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic. These findings may contribute to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Olga I. Zakharova Fedor I. Korennoy Ivan V. Iashin Nadezhda N. Toropova Andrey E. Gogin Denis V. Kolbasov Galina V. Surkova Svetlana M. Malkhazova Andrei A. Blokhin |
author_facet |
Olga I. Zakharova Fedor I. Korennoy Ivan V. Iashin Nadezhda N. Toropova Andrey E. Gogin Denis V. Kolbasov Galina V. Surkova Svetlana M. Malkhazova Andrei A. Blokhin |
author_sort |
Olga I. Zakharova |
title |
Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
title_short |
Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
title_full |
Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic |
title_sort |
ecological and socio-economic determinants of livestock animal leptospirosis in the russian arctic |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 https://doaj.org/article/05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol 8 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675/full https://doaj.org/toc/2297-1769 2297-1769 doi:10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 https://doaj.org/article/05769fdec59c47058d3ed5a5ce3b17df |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2021.658675 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
container_volume |
8 |
_version_ |
1766321253777408000 |