A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognosti...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0559c86b04864b3c9a0bc9352df0909c 2023-05-15T13:39:56+02:00 A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future B. M. Monge-Sanz A. Bozzo N. Byrne M. P. Chipperfield M. Diamantakis J. Flemming L. J. Gray R. J. Hogan L. Jones L. Magnusson I. Polichtchouk T. G. Shepherd N. Wedi A. Weisheimer 2022-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 https://doaj.org/article/0559c86b04864b3c9a0bc9352df0909c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/0559c86b04864b3c9a0bc9352df0909c Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 22, Pp 4277-4302 (2022) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 2022-12-31T11:43:49Z We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, as we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high-latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations, the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the correlation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with respect to ERA-Interim and an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of timescales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 7 4277 4302 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 B. M. Monge-Sanz A. Bozzo N. Byrne M. P. Chipperfield M. Diamantakis J. Flemming L. J. Gray R. J. Hogan L. Jones L. Magnusson I. Polichtchouk T. G. Shepherd N. Wedi A. Weisheimer A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, as we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high-latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations, the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the correlation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with respect to ERA-Interim and an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of timescales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. M. Monge-Sanz A. Bozzo N. Byrne M. P. Chipperfield M. Diamantakis J. Flemming L. J. Gray R. J. Hogan L. Jones L. Magnusson I. Polichtchouk T. G. Shepherd N. Wedi A. Weisheimer |
author_facet |
B. M. Monge-Sanz A. Bozzo N. Byrne M. P. Chipperfield M. Diamantakis J. Flemming L. J. Gray R. J. Hogan L. Jones L. Magnusson I. Polichtchouk T. G. Shepherd N. Wedi A. Weisheimer |
author_sort |
B. M. Monge-Sanz |
title |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_short |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_full |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_fullStr |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_full_unstemmed |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_sort |
stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 https://doaj.org/article/0559c86b04864b3c9a0bc9352df0909c |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 22, Pp 4277-4302 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4277/2022/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/0559c86b04864b3c9a0bc9352df0909c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
4277 |
op_container_end_page |
4302 |
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1766126299237056512 |