An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics
An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitati...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://doaj.org/article/055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e 2024-09-15T18:23:42+00:00 An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics Paul-Arthur Monerie Robin Chadwick Laura J Wilcox Andrew G Turner 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://doaj.org/article/055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e Environmental Research Letters, Vol 19, Iss 5, p 054048 (2024) summer monsoon precipitation aridity climate change greenhouse gases anthropogenic aerosols CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 2024-08-05T17:49:27Z An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 19 5 054048 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
summer monsoon precipitation aridity climate change greenhouse gases anthropogenic aerosols CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
summer monsoon precipitation aridity climate change greenhouse gases anthropogenic aerosols CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Paul-Arthur Monerie Robin Chadwick Laura J Wilcox Andrew G Turner An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
topic_facet |
summer monsoon precipitation aridity climate change greenhouse gases anthropogenic aerosols CMIP6 Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paul-Arthur Monerie Robin Chadwick Laura J Wilcox Andrew G Turner |
author_facet |
Paul-Arthur Monerie Robin Chadwick Laura J Wilcox Andrew G Turner |
author_sort |
Paul-Arthur Monerie |
title |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_short |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_full |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_fullStr |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_full_unstemmed |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_sort |
uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://doaj.org/article/055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 19, Iss 5, p 054048 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/055536b4af344aa78cf0bf6e319b894e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054048 |
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1810463959667441664 |