Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements
The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain,...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:052964d997e64b389890a1f8cd0fb926 2023-05-15T16:09:35+02:00 Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements G. Fu A. Heemink S. Lu A. Segers K. Weber H.-X. Lin 2016-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 https://doaj.org/article/052964d997e64b389890a1f8cd0fb926 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/9189/2016/acp-16-9189-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/052964d997e64b389890a1f8cd0fb926 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16, Pp 9189-9200 (2016) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 2022-12-31T05:12:14Z The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 14 9189 9200 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 G. Fu A. Heemink S. Lu A. Segers K. Weber H.-X. Lin Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
G. Fu A. Heemink S. Lu A. Segers K. Weber H.-X. Lin |
author_facet |
G. Fu A. Heemink S. Lu A. Segers K. Weber H.-X. Lin |
author_sort |
G. Fu |
title |
Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
title_short |
Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
title_full |
Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
title_fullStr |
Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
title_sort |
model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 https://doaj.org/article/052964d997e64b389890a1f8cd0fb926 |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16, Pp 9189-9200 (2016) |
op_relation |
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/9189/2016/acp-16-9189-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/052964d997e64b389890a1f8cd0fb926 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
9189 |
op_container_end_page |
9200 |
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1766405447341834240 |