Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018
In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:045b19e291c44fc684f1d728d090dcb7 2023-05-15T17:34:44+02:00 Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 Marsz Andrzej A. Styszyńska Anna Bryś Krystyna Bryś Tadeusz 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/article/045b19e291c44fc684f1d728d090dcb7 EN eng Sciendo https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/toc/2081-6383 2081-6383 doi:10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/article/045b19e291c44fc684f1d728d090dcb7 Quaestiones Geographicae, Vol 40, Iss 3, Pp 109-124 (2021) air temperature trend macro-circulation conditions sunshine duration nao radiative forcing co2 Geography (General) G1-922 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 2022-12-31T12:56:33Z In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell's index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Quaestiones Geographicae 40 3 109 124 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
air temperature trend macro-circulation conditions sunshine duration nao radiative forcing co2 Geography (General) G1-922 |
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air temperature trend macro-circulation conditions sunshine duration nao radiative forcing co2 Geography (General) G1-922 Marsz Andrzej A. Styszyńska Anna Bryś Krystyna Bryś Tadeusz Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
topic_facet |
air temperature trend macro-circulation conditions sunshine duration nao radiative forcing co2 Geography (General) G1-922 |
description |
In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell's index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marsz Andrzej A. Styszyńska Anna Bryś Krystyna Bryś Tadeusz |
author_facet |
Marsz Andrzej A. Styszyńska Anna Bryś Krystyna Bryś Tadeusz |
author_sort |
Marsz Andrzej A. |
title |
Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
title_short |
Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
title_full |
Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
title_fullStr |
Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 |
title_sort |
role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in wrocław (poland) in the years 1951–2018 |
publisher |
Sciendo |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/article/045b19e291c44fc684f1d728d090dcb7 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Quaestiones Geographicae, Vol 40, Iss 3, Pp 109-124 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/toc/2081-6383 2081-6383 doi:10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 https://doaj.org/article/045b19e291c44fc684f1d728d090dcb7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 |
container_title |
Quaestiones Geographicae |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
109 |
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124 |
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1766133660520546304 |